[sacw] SACW #1. | 29 Jan. 02

[Harsh Kapoor]

South Asia Citizens Wire - Dispatch #1. | 29 January 2002

------------------------------------------

#1. Bangladesh Book release: The Fractured Scales: The Search for a=20
Uniform Personal Code" by Faustina Pereira (31 Jan, Dhaka)
#2. Press Statement by Pakistan Peace Coalition
#3. Press Release by Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (CNDP) [In=
dia]
#4. Extracts from Dr. Yunous Shaikh's letter from his death cell in Pakist=
an
#5. Jinnah Institute Lecture - Post Taliban Afghanistan: Emerging=20
Trends in Pakistan and the Region
By Ahmed Rashid (London, 4th Feb)
#6. World Trade Centre scrap sails for Asia
#7. Wars don't come cheap (Sultan Shahin)
#8. India Pakistan Arms Race & Militarisation Watch (IPARMW) # 62 |=20
29 January 2002
#9. 'Rape by Sri Lanka police grows'
#10. Two workshops on Confronting Corporate Globalization in Bhopal=20
(New York city)
#11. India: 'Save the Republic from Saffron Subversion and American=20
Arm-twisting'
#12. 'Terrorism' Casts Shadow Over India's Campaign - Ruling Party=20
Rallies With Anti-Pakistan Rhetoric
#13. People For Peace Between Pakistan and India

________________________

#1.

Dear Friend,
You are cordially invited to attend the Launching Ceremony of the book,
"The Fractured Scales: The Search for a Uniform Personal Code" by Faustina
Pereira. The launch will take place on Thursday, January 31, 2002 at 4:30
p.m. at Dhanmondi WVA Auditorium (House 20 Road 27 Old). Ms. Hena Das,
President of Bangladesh Mahila Parishad, has consented to attend as Chief
Guest. Dr. Meghna Guhathakurta and Dr. Mizanur Rahman have consented to
critique and discuss the issues around the book. Your participation at this
ceremony will be greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
Sultana Kamal
Executive Director
Ain o Salish Kendro (ASK)
26/3 Puaran Paltan Line
Dhaka-1000
Bangladesh

_____

#2.

Pakistan Peace Coalition
ST-001, Sector X, Sub-Sector V,
Gulshan-e-Maymar, Karachi-75340 [Pakistan]

January 28, 2002

JOINT STATEMENT ISSUED TO THE PRESS
By
B.M.Kutty and Karamat Ali

Two recent public statements made by President Musharraf deserve to=20
be welcomed by all those who yearn for peace and stability in South=20
Asia; one offering No War Pact to India and the other expressing=20
Pakistan's willingness to work for the denuclearisation of South Asia.

It is regrettable that instead of reacting positively to President=20
Musharraf's peace overtures, the Government of India has chosen this=20
juncture of heightened tension between the two countries to test-fire=20
a new version of its short-range nuclear missile "Agni". Against this=20
background, one should feel relieved at Pakistan foreign minister's=20
assertion that Pakistan has no intention of changing its earlier=20
decision to defer and postpone the testing of its "Shaheen" missile.

With the armies of the two countries poised against each other in a=20
state of eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation and the world watching the=20
two anxiously, it is high time that our governments broke themselves=20
free from the hangover of the last fifty five years of mutual=20
hostility and returned to the saner option of facing each other=20
across the conference table. The peoples of Pakistan and India=20
ardently desire peace, no matter what the biased information media of=20
the two countries want the world to believe. They want to see the=20
budgets of the two governments allocate a lot more funds for health,=20
education, housing and other basic civic amenities and not for the=20
murderous "Agnis" and "Shaheens".

As founding members and activists of the Pakistan Peace Coalition,=20
which has been in the forefront of the movement for peace between=20
Pakistan and India and the denuclearisation of the subcontinent, we=20
call upon the Government of India to respond positively to President=20
Musharraf's offer of a No War Pact and the denuclearisation of the=20
subcontinent.

We urge upon President Musharraf and the Government of Pakistan not=20
only to stand by their public commitment on a No War Pact with India=20
and the denuclearisation of the subcontinent, but be bold enough to=20
proceed unilaterally to cut down military expenditure in the=20
forthcoming budget and take concrete steps to progressively move away=20
from the suicidal path of nuclearisation of Pakistan., irrespective=20
of what India does.
We appeal to the people of other SAARC countries to join us in=20
calling upon the governments of Pakistan and India to stop playing=20
with our collective destiny.

_____

#3.

Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 14:21:38 +0500
Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (CNDP) [India]

LETTER/PRESS RELEASE

The Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (CNDP) welcomes the latest
statement by Gen. Pervez Musharraf offering to work with India for the
de-nuclearisation of South Asia. This follows his landmark speech of
January 12 promising internal reforms and transformed relations
with India, which will constitute historic changes if truly carried out.
Musharraf's statement stands in sharp contrast to the Pakistani
establishment's refusal till recently to give even a no-first-use guarantee
and New Delhi's misleading campaign about "minimum nuclear deterrence" and
persistent opposition to a no-war pact with our neighbour.

By rejecting Gen. Musharraf's de-nucleariSation offer, the Indian
government has only exposed the hollowness of its Professed commitment to
nuclear disarmament. The folly of India's rulers has been compounded by the
test-firing of A new Agni missile on Republic Day's eve. Besides being an
irresponsibly provocative gesture in the current context, the test is a
reaffirmation of New Delhi's resolve to proceed with nuclear weaponisation.

The CNDP calls on the Indian government to revoke its rejection of the
Gen. Musharraf's proposal and respond positively to it. To make credible
progress rowards South Asia's denuclearisation, the governments of both
India and Pakistan must immediately de-escalate the military build-up on
the border, revive people-to-people contacts, and come together in the
cause of global nuclear disarmament.

Admiral L. Ramdas, Achin Vanaik, J. Sri Raman, Prabir Purukayastha, Praful
Bidwai, and Christopher Fonseca.
CNDP, India

_____

#4.

Edited extracts from Dr. Shaikh's letter to Babu Gogineni,Executive Directo=
r,
International Humanist and Ethical Union (www.iheu.org). (Written in Novemb=
er
2001)

I hope this letter finds you in the best of your health. I am well and tryi=
ng
to keep fit. Well, the 11th September US tragedy brought a lot of grief for
the loss of valuable American lives. Indeed, it was a great loss for humani=
ty
and civilization. Religious barbarism struck a blow and awakened the world =
to
the horrors of religious dogmatic beliefs and practices; as well as it
stressed the need for humanism, liberalism and secularism. I wrote a letter
to the US Embassy here, as well as, sent a message expressing my grief to
Prof. Paul Kurtz and American humanists.

As you might remember, my paper 'Deeni Madarsas and Rise of Taliban'
presented at IHEU's Mumbai Congress fringe was on this topic. Indeed,
globalisation of the world village exposed even the most developed societie=
s
to the religious barbarism of most backward societies. And here intensely
arises the question of developing and morally supporting the third world
liberal persons, associations and governments. Mere slogans of democracy ar=
e
not enough. Globalization of Humanism, Liberalism and Secularism is necessa=
ry
not only for the good of the third world countries but also for the
'spiritual' and physical defence of the developed and civilised world.

My Case
Now about myself: on 18.08.01 Capital Punishment was pronounced against me,
though the case did not merit this.

1). On 1 October 2000 I attended a meeting of South Asian Union addressed b=
y
an ISI (Inter Services Intelligence) Brig. Shaukat Qadir (retd.) also runni=
ng
a religious-political association of Jamait - I - Islami. I asked a couple =
of
questions about South Asian peace and Kashmir which offended him & he
returned a threat. There were foreign office policy makers and newsmen
sitting there.

2. Within 48 hours, a foreign office Pakistan's employee who was also my
student at the medical college I used to lecture at the morning time,
prepared an application against me alleging blasphemous remarks in their
class and gave to a cleric, who improving upon the complaint, accused me of=
a
specific instance of 2-10-2000 in the class of IInd year male students and
registered the case with Police.

- The Court set aside the cleric's evidence as hearsay.
- The student who wrote the application was found to be absent from
the college on the day of the alleged incident, so his evidence was set
aside.
- Two other students gave evidence that they heard the alleged
blasphemous remarks on 2-10-2000 at 12.15 noon in a lecture that lasted
between 12.00 to 12.45 noon.
- In my statement, I informed the Court that on 2-10-2000, I did no=
t
take any lecture from 12.00 o 12.45 noon, and therefore there was no incide=
nt
of uttering blasphemous remarks at 12.15 noon. In support of this I present=
ed
the college timetable before the court, which confirmed that my timings at
college were limited from 9.30 am to 12.00 noon only.
- Therefore neither the incident took place, nor the prosecution
proved that the alleged sentences were blasphemous.
- During the trial, the religious students of the claimant clerics
Deeni Madrassa used to demonstrate against me wearing the Taliban style
headdress & uniforms, my solicitors were threatened so much so that the cou=
rt
had to be moved to central Jail, Rawalpindi.
- The Court in camera held at Central Jail, Rawalpindi sentenced me
to Capital Punishment, despite the flimsy and uncorroborated evidence again=
st
me, and despite documentary evidence in my favour, against which our appeal
has been launched.
- People here designed the abuse of the blasphemy law 295/c Pakista=
n
Penal Code as Religious Terrorism with Law Code.

Thanks to friends like you, I am in good spirits and waiting for decision o=
n
my appeal. I am also thankful to IHEU, Amnesty International and other
individuals and groups for their support.
As per news here, the American and Allied Forces have taken most of
Afghanistan from the shackles of Taliban religious Terrorism; it had lots o=
f
influence on Islamabad administration, so hopes are rising for some liberal
atmosphere.
My convictions for the truth of our life stance Humanism are indeed
unshakeable and unbeatable. And I am most thankful for the sympathy and
support from the Humanist Family of the World.
My regards to all Humanists, individually and collectively.

Yours in Humanism
Dr. M. Younas Shaikh
Death Cell

______

#5.

The Jinnah Institute
The Chairman and Executive Committee of the Jinnah Institute=20
cordially invite you to a lecture on:

Post Taliban Afghanistan: Emerging Trends in Pakistan and the Region
By Ahmed Rashid, Author of "The Taliban, Oil and the New Great Game=20
in Central Asia."

On Monday 4th February, 2002 at 6:00 p.m.
at Royal Institute of Great Britain
21 Albermarle Street, London W1 [UK]

Brought to you by the Indus Foundation

_____

#6.

World Trade Centre scrap sails for Asia

UK: January 23, 2002
LONDON/NEW YORK-Steel from the wreckage of the World Trade Centre is=20
destined for a new life in India and China, where it will be recycled=20
and used in construction projects.

One firm taking steel from the huge project to clear Ground Zero is=20
New York's Metals Management.
Company president Alan Ratner said it had bought 70,000 tonnes of=20
scrap from the ruined twin towers, some of which had been shipped=20
across the Pacific to Southeast Asia. Ratner said four or five=20
vessels had already sailed from New York with consignments of scrap.=20
Among them are the "very dense" steel girders from Ground Zero, which=20
could finally yield 250,000 to 400,000 tonnes of scrap for recycling,=20
he said.

The World Trade Centre's broken steel outer skeleton comprised of=20
steel beams up to two feet thick. Its guts yielded many tonnes of=20
steel office furniture and filing cabinets, to be baled into large=20
cubes for shipping. Mobile shearing machines gnaw through some of the=20
smaller girders, but the beams from the base of the towers are some=20
of the heaviest ever used, and must be seared through with torches.

Sources in Chennai port, India said two 33,000 tonne consignments had=20
already arrived, a third was on its way and a fourth was soon to=20
arrive at India's West Coast port of Kandla.

The cargo ship Borzna arrived in Chennai at the start of January and=20
its scrap consignment, a third of which came from the twin towers,=20
should be unloaded by Thursday, they said.

A second ship, the Shen Qua Hai, is also being unloaded and should be=20
leaving in 10 days time. Shipping sources said the beams were so=20
dense that a full load would probably break through the bottom of the=20
ship, so they would have to sail as part cargoes.

The demand for 20 or so crane-fitted ships to do the job could well=20
be enough to boost the freight market, they said. Sources in India=20
said the scrap had been bought at $120 (83.6 pounds) per tonne and=20
would be recycled into ingots, which would be sold on to various=20
industries, including construction.

Not all of the World Trade Centre's carcass is sailing for Asia.=20
Metal Management's Ratner said the City of New York will keep some=20
mangled metal for a memorial to those killed on September 11.

Story by Pete Harrison and Manuela Badawy

REUTERS NEWS SERVICE

______

#7.

Asia Times
January 26, 2002

Wars don't come cheap
By Sultan Shahin
NEW DELHI - Completely unmindful of the human, financial, social and=20
political costs of war or even long-term mobilization of forces,=20
India's strategic analysts suggest that the million-strong army=20
deployment along the border with Pakistan should continue for months.
The government, too, seems to agree. For the aim, they claim, is not=20
so much to go to war, but to "bleed Pakistan white" and thus teach it=20
a lesson.
India's military mobilization has forced Pakistan to deploy half a=20
million troops, and this is causing a major drain on its slender=20
resources. According to media reports, Pakistan's month-long=20
mobilization of its armed forces has already cost it between US$400=20
and $600 million. Pakistan's weak economy is expected to start=20
feeling the pinch if this continues for more than 45 days.
Defense analyst Pramit Pal Chaudhuri of Hindustan Times contends that=20
even the lower figure of $400 million per month would mean a huge 20=20
percent bite out of Pakistan's declared defense budget of $2.2=20
billion this year. As it was, the Pakistani military had already been=20
asked to take a hefty cut in its defense budget last year because of=20
the country's fiscal problems. The past month's mobilization will=20
thus have caused serious misgivings in Islamabad.
Indian officials have reportedly told Western diplomats that=20
mobilization is as much about bleeding Pakistan as it is keeping=20
alive the threat of war. India's mobilization carries an even larger=20
price tag, but New Delhi has deep enough pockets to maintain this=20
posture for months on end.
Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf should also recognize=20
that India's deeper pockets mean that it can play this game again and=20
again. And each time Pakistan will see its balance book hemorrhage=20
red ink. Indian diplomacy has also insured against a financial=20
bailout from Washington or Beijing.
In Chaudhuri's assessment, the costs of mobilization would initially=20
come from transporting troops to forward positions. After that,=20
Pakistan would have to spend money on fuel and spares. Particularly=20
expensive would be the need to keep a certain number of warplanes in=20
the skies.
Islamabad, say analysts, has another problem. Because of the loss of=20
Afghanistan's strategic depth, its military strategy is one of=20
offensive-defense. This means its two strike corps have to capture=20
swathes of Indian territory. This means a lot more fuel and=20
ammunition than a simple defensive stance.
It seems that the United States, too, is resigned to the deployment=20
continuing for a long time, even if it doesn't lead to war. While he=20
was in India last week, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that=20
the establishment of communication between India and Pakistan had a=20
higher priority in his scheme than withdrawal and redeployment of=20
forces. Why did Powell take the stand he did? Because he was aware=20
that such eyeball-to-eyeball deployments had been in existence in=20
various parts of the world for decades without escalating into war,=20
says K Subrahmanyam, a senior defense analyst with The Times of India.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Warsaw Pact confrontation in=20
Central Europe during the Cold War is the most celebrated instance,=20
he points out. There was a similar massive confrontationist=20
mobilization between Chinese and Soviet troops during the Cold War=20
years. Currently, on the Korean peninsula, South Korean and US forces=20
face the North Korea forces. In fact, on the Line of Control (LoC),=20
Indian and Pakistani forces have been in such confrontation for=20
decades. In 30 years, there has been only one misadventure on the=20
part of Pakistan (in the form of Kargil), which was managed without=20
further escalation.
Debunking the fears of military brinkmanship leading to an=20
accidental, unintended war, Subrahmanyam says, "Each year, there are=20
exchanges of fire across the LoC, involving thousands of rounds of=20
ammunition without escalation, and yet we hear learned comments of=20
some frustrated gunner starting a war.
"The Indian army mobilization imposes a corresponding cost on=20
Pakistan and communicates to them that this country would not always=20
be on the receiving side of a proxy war, which costs Pakistan next to=20
nothing. Though in absolute terms, the Indian costs are higher, the=20
burden on Pakistan is higher because of its smaller economy.
"As the deployment takes place and forward areas are mined and the=20
habitations are cleared up, the feasibility of infiltration is=20
proportionately reduced, though not fully eliminated. The deployment=20
keeps the international focus on Pakistan and its terrorism."
In his view, India should present its case for such long-term=20
deployment in terms familiar to the West. Just as the "rogue" North=20
Korean army has to be contained in the Demilitarized Zone, "rogue"=20
Pakistan has to be on the Indian-Pakistan border and the LoC.
"No doubt the alert status preliminary to combat expectations cannot=20
be sustained for long. That will necessarily lead to a stand down.=20
But that is different from our forces being redeployed back to their=20
peacetime locations. We should make use of this deployment to=20
intensity our intelligence and surveillance and to hunt out and=20
neutralize the terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. It is because these=20
forward deployments have costs for Pakistan that Islamabad is asking=20
for de-escalation. The choice before Pakistan is clear - stop further=20
terrorism and over a period of time there will be de-escalation; or=20
continue terrorism and pay the price for it," he concludes.
Such cold-blooded calculation, however, completely leaves out the=20
human, social, political and the real economic cost of war, even of=20
military mobilizations and deployment on the border. In the words of=20
columnist C Rammanohar Reddy (The Hindu, January 5), "A war causes=20
colossal human suffering - to the men in uniform, to the civilians=20
who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and to their=20
families and friends. It also destroys homes and places of work.=20
After the immediate suffering comes the lifelong damage to mind and=20
body. In all this, the 'economic' costs seem trifling. But there is a=20
huge cost, both short and long term. On that there cannot be any=20
doubt.
"The human, social and political costs of a war are always much more=20
widespread and of a qualitatively more serious nature. But there is a=20
huge cost that any economy will have to bear during and after a=20
conflict. So when Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha says a war will=20
have no economic impact or when senior officials claim it will cost=20
nothing because stocks of armaments and ammunition have already been=20
accumulated, it is irresponsibility of the highest order."
Since the December 13 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, it=20
has been claimed by advocates of war time and again that the Indian=20
people want war. While this is largely true of affluent urban middle=20
classes, as the editor of Outlook news magazine Vinod Mehta=20
discovered to his horror, they do not really constitute the Indian=20
people.
This makes senior columnist Patwant Singh sarcastic in his column in=20
the influential Asian Age. "Now, even war - including nuclear - might=20
be declared in the name of 'ordinary people', since the editor of a=20
leading national daily has made the astonishing proposition that=20
India owes her people a war, because the masses are angry and=20
frustrated at being denied the satisfaction of seeing Pakistan taught=20
a lesson. Understandably, he didn't spell out war's catastrophic=20
consequences, like the danger it would pose to India's internal=20
stability by polarizing her two major communities [Hindu and Muslim]=20
still further. Or the extent to which it would wreck her economy with=20
the burden of rebuilding war-damaged cities and replacing military=20
assets lost in war. And most of all the toll it would take of our=20
fighting men on the battlefield.
"Wars don't come cheap. As it is, India's current defense spending=20
makes up a significant portion of the national budget. A war would=20
not only see a steep increase in defense allocations but additional=20
funds would obviously be diverted from India's badly strained social=20
and infrastructural sectors. Other outlays will also rise, such as=20
increases in the oil import bill. And so on. The invisible costs of a=20
war will be no less debilitating and demanding: a tapering off of=20
foreign investments, dramatic down-swings in tourist earnings,=20
shortfalls in exports, and the demoralizing overall effect of an=20
already demented Sensex [stock market].
"Another consequence of creating a war-like atmosphere - without=20
actually going to war - is the degree to which the lives and=20
livelihood of farmers in border states are disrupted by the movement=20
of men, material and armor. Punjab's farmers, who produce over 70=20
percent of India's wheat, pay the highest price in terms of crops=20
destroyed and families uprooted as army units with heavy vehicles and=20
tanks move into their fertile border lands. Their large-scale=20
movements destroy crops, while gun batteries, military encampments,=20
trenches, training exercises and mine laying operations place a=20
formidable burden on the farmers whose state has a 530 kilometer long=20
border with Pakistan.
"Another telling example is the acreage of cultivable land which was=20
expropriated for all time for the fence laid along the international=20
border in 1984. How did the farmers fare in that project? According=20
to a recent report, '20,000 acres of cultivable land in three border=20
districts lies between the fence and the zero line. Fields accessible=20
earlier have been rendered out of reach. The union government, after=20
much persuasion, last year agreed to pay Rs 2,500 [$52] per acre as=20
compensation to the affected farmers!' So much for 'ordinary people',=20
since tillers-of-the-soil no doubt fall in this category. It goes to=20
the everlasting credit of Sikh farmers that they have zestfully=20
participated in every war since independence, have always volunteered=20
to fight alongside troops, and offered their tractors, trailers and=20
trucks to the army to augment its resources.
"There is another category of 'ordinary people' our editor and his=20
readers might like to consider - the over 300 million Indians who=20
live below the poverty line for whom terrorism and Pakistan are of=20
less importance than the everyday terror of their poverty. The terror=20
of seeing their children die because Indian has the world's highest=20
infant mortality rate, of not enough food to eat (even though India=20
is food surplus), or clean water to drink, of living in shanties=20
amidst unbelievable filth, without medical cover, or education and=20
employment opportunities. They are angry because of the low priority=20
given to their struggle for survival, and not because Pakistan has=20
not been taught a lesson. It is arrent nonsense to suggest this."
The India-Pakistan mobilization of forces is happening in the midst=20
of human habitations, where people engage in daily commerce and=20
agricultural activities. Counting the cost is not easy. Thousands of=20
acres of agricultural land, for instance, have already been rendered=20
useless by the mere fact of the existence of the border. Then there=20
is damage from extensive mining. Army sources confirmed that at least=20
80 Indian soldiers have already been killed while laying mines, and=20
how many more humans and animals will be killed and maimed over the=20
years is of course not known.
The BBC's Asit Jolly reported (January 17) from the Indian-Pakistan=20
border on how mine laying is affecting Indian villagers. India has=20
laid extensive new minefields during its military escalation with=20
Pakistan. The minefields are scattered in cultivated farmlands near=20
the international border and the LoC in Kashmir. Villagers on both=20
sides of the frontier are likely to live with the fear of the mines=20
for many years to come. Several unaware civilians have become their=20
victims.
Laying mines is a defensive measure. State officials told the BBC=20
that local people have been asked to relocate to safer areas, away=20
from the range of Pakistani artillery. The Indian army says that the=20
area has been mined to prevent any possible incursion by Pakistani=20
troops. Officers say that troops on the other side of the frontier=20
have also taken similar measures. They also say that Indian troops=20
have completed two phases of laying the mines and in the third and=20
the final phase they will lay mines to protect strategic targets near=20
the frontier.
The Indian army says that it will clear the area of all the mines if=20
and when a military de-escalation takes place. But some experts said=20
it was impossible to remove all the mines. So irrespective of whether=20
India and Pakistan are able to make peace or go to war, villagers on=20
both sides of the frontier are likely to live with the fear of the=20
mines for many years to come, as is the case in Afghanistan, and many=20
other countries, such as Laos and Cambodia.
Rammanohar Reddy tries to count the cost of war at some length. "The=20
implications of a war, however brief it may turn out to be, on two of=20
the world's poorest economies should be self evident. For India,=20
first, there is the financial burden on the central government which=20
has to meet the direct costs of the conflict. Second, there is the=20
cost of displacement and disruption in the areas where the conflict=20
will take place - both are likely to be considerable. And, third,=20
there are the medium and even long- term costs the economy will=20
experience in the form of lower economic growth. As against this the=20
only benefit - if there can be such a thing in war - is that presumed=20
to flow from better use of unutilized capacities in the economy.
"Precise figures in rupees cannot be placed on the costs of war. But=20
past wars provide enough indications of the colossal cost that awaits=20
us if we are to embark on a war with Pakistan. Our neighbor will=20
experience much the larger difficulties, but ours are not going to be=20
negligible. One thing is certain. It will be a short conflict and not=20
the least because we can expect the major powers to intervene and put=20
an end to the military adventure. Any war will go on only as long as=20
the inventories of ammunition and spares last in both countries, for=20
whatever the claims about self-sufficiency in defense, even India is=20
still heavily dependent on imports to keep the war machine going.
"The immediate and direct costs to the government will be what it=20
will have to incur on consumption of inventories of missiles and=20
ammunition, on additional inputs such as fuel for the air force=20
sorties, the costs of destruction of armaments and the spending on=20
deployment. Inventories are replenished after a conflict and the=20
additional expenditure after the Kargil war of 1999 gives an idea of=20
how much even a contained and short war could cost at the bare=20
minimum.
"During the year of the Kargil conflict (1999-2000) defense spending=20
jumped by 18 percent. Some of the replenishment costs would have been=20
incurred in the next financial year as well, and defense outlay=20
increased further by 16 percent in 2000-01. That was a 36 percent=20
growth over two years.
"A war also results in the destruction of civilian infrastructure,=20
disruption of local economies and a dislocation of production and=20
transport elsewhere in the economy. There is also the possibility of=20
a spurt in inflation if shortages arise from dislocation. The overall=20
outcome is a slowing down of economic growth. The economist Jean=20
Dreze in a study of militarism, development and democracy points out=20
that of the six countries which experienced an economic contraction=20
at double-digit rates in 1990-97, five had gone through wars or civil=20
wars in that time.
"The Indian experience with past wars is striking. In 1962-63 [the=20
year of the war with China], the economy grew by only 2 percent; in=20
1965-66 [war with Pakistan] growth was a negative 3.7 percent and in=20
1971-72 [the Bangladesh war] it was as little as 0.9 per cent. All=20
three years witnessed a deceleration and it took a couple of years=20
before the economy recovered.
"Again, this was not always the fallout of the conflicts. In 1965,=20
for instance, there was a severe nationwide drought. Yet, it is hard=20
to deny that the three wars of the 1960s and 1970s must have=20
contributed substantially to the deceleration in GDP growth. The=20
impact of the Kargil war is more ambiguous. The economy grew at the=20
same pace in 1999-2000 as the year before - a healthy 6.5 percent.=20
But that was an unusual year. The Fifth Pay Commission bonanza led to=20
a rapid growth in the service sector and that also gave a temporary=20
boost to the industry. After that it has been downhill all the way."
Concluding his detailed analysis of the impact of war on Indian=20
economy, Reddy says, "The short and simple truth is that a war will=20
be bad for the Indian economy. A war cannot also come at a worse=20
time. The economy is in a slump. Even a short conflict will push it=20
deeper into a quagmire. All these arguments are well known. If yet=20
they have to be elaborated, it is because powerful voices are blinded=20
by the thirst for revenge."
2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved.

______

#8.

India Pakistan Arms Race & Militarisation Watch (IPARMW) # 62
29 January 2002
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/IPARMW/message/73

______

#9.

BBC News
Monday, 28 January, 2002, 15:10 GMT
'Rape by Sri Lanka police grows'
Tamil women have suffered grievously in the civil war
By Frances Harrison in Colombo

The London-based human rights organisation Amnesty International says=20
there has been a marked increase in cases of alleged rape by the Sri=20
Lankan security forces in the last year.
Amnesty called on the newly elected government to send a clear=20
message to the army, police and navy that sexual violence in custody=20
would not be tolerated.
The timing of the appeal is interesting as it comes against the=20
backdrop of efforts by both sides in the country's civil war to=20
prepare the ground for peace talks.

Serious allegations have been made against soldiers
Amnesty International says the majority of incidents of alleged rape=20
occurred in the context of Sri Lanka's civil war. This means that the=20
victims were almost certainly women from the Tamil minority.
One particular case from last year was mentioned. Two young women in=20
the northern island of Mannar were stripped naked, gang raped, beaten=20
and paraded naked in front of police officers.
Their hands and feet were tied to a pole and they were suspended for=20
an hour and a half while being beaten once again with thick wire. But=20
Amnesty's report says that complaints of rape and other forms of=20
torture are often not dealt with effectively by the Sri Lankan police=20
and judiciary.

Peace hopes
As a result, the organisation says deficiencies in the early stages=20
of the criminal investigation process repeatedly lead to the collapse=20
of the case against the alleged perpetrators.
The report notes that despite ratifying anti-torture conventions, to=20
date, not one member of the Sri Lankan security forces has been found=20
guilty in a court of law of rape in custody.
Amnesty says the new government in Sri Lanka must now do everything=20
in its power to prevent grave sexual abuse of detainees.

Pressure on the government of Ranil Wickramasinghe to act
It says the government should send a message to the security forces=20
that such violations will not be tolerated. It also suggests the=20
government establish an independent investigative body to look into=20
human rights abuses, including rape. The appeal from Amnesty comes at=20
a time when the Sri Lankan Government is trying to create a new=20
climate of good will with Tamil Tiger rebels in the hope of finding a=20
way out of the ethnic conflict. An economic embargo on rebel areas=20
has been eased and last week the Tamil Tigers released 10 prisoners=20
of war.
The expectation on the rebel side is that the Sri Lankan Government=20
would respond now with steps to release some Tamil political=20
detainees or at the very least bring them to trial.

______

#10.

Two Bhopal workshops happening at anti-WEF stuff this coming weekend in NYC

Confronting Corporate Globalization in Bhopal
Friday February 1, 10am-noon
at the Public Eye on Davos International Conference
www.publiceyeondavos.ch
United Nations Church Center
777 UN Plaza on the 2nd Floor - Auditorium
44th & 1st Avenue in Midtown Manhattan

Confronting Corporate Globalization in Bhopal
Friday February 1, 1:30-3pm
at the WEF Counter-Summit
put on by Students for Global Justice
www.studentsforglobaljustice.org
Columbia University, Lerner Hall
West 115th St and Broadway
Subway: #1 train to 116th St

_______

#10.

Foreign Affairs - Background Briefing on Kashmir

To the Brink in Kashmir
Military escalation, a groundbreaking speech, who is a terrorist?
http://m1e.net/c?2617567-cJJ3vJPkSz0rc%408291-MbOmL3mYIcML2

_______

#11.

Fwd from CPIML website

Save the Republic from Saffron Subversion and American Arm-twisting

REPUBLIC DAY 2002 is being observed against a disturbing backdrop that cann=
ot
be obscured by all the pomp and grandeur of the occasion. Over the years, t=
he
Day has come to acquire an increasingly aggressive martial overtone and the
scaling down of the martial display during this years parade is therefore
itself bound to be treated as a statement of crisis facing the republic. Bu=
t
more than the scale of display, the people are now bothered about the very
integrity of the Indian Army. Enough skeletons have tumbled out of the mili=
tary
cupboard in recent months to make the nation sit up and take a fresh look a=
t
the holy cow called our defence establishment.

Scams like the Bofors and HDW submarine deals that shocked and stirred the
whole nations conscience a decade ago would today appear to be mere peanuts=
.
This country had never seen or heard about scams more shocking than Tehelka=
and
the coffin scam and other acts of theft unearthed by the CAG. And this sens=
e of
discomfort can only be rein8orced by the growing strategic proximity betwee=
n
New Delhi, Washington and Tel Aviv.

The scourge of terrorism, as symbolised by the dastardly attacks of Decembe=
r 13
and January 22, is certainly a major challenge facing the republic. But
terrorism per se, is not a new problem for India. After all, this country h=
as
experienced major political assassinations and a whole series of terrorist
onslaughts. If the republic has managed to survive these scars, it is only
because at the end of the day the resilience of the secular democratic
potential of India as a modern republic has always proved stronger.

What has however aggravated the problem of terrorism in this country in rec=
ent
years is the fact that the forces in power are now themselves practitioners=
and
perpetrators of terror. Terror has paved the way to political success and, =
as
they say, nothing succeeds like success. The man who held this entire count=
ry
to ransom by spreading sheer terror, sectarian strife and communal venom
through his infamous rathyatra is now waxing eloquent against terrorism. An=
d
the saffron goons once again threaten to impose their blood-soaked Ayodhya
agenda on the country on the eve of the crucial Assembly elections in Uttar
Pradesh. It is this combination of saffron terrorism and state terrorism wh=
ich
has provided the most fertile ground for all other kinds of terrorism.

New Delhis growing strategic dependence on Washington is bound to make Indi=
a
even more vulnerable to the terrorist challenge. If part of the terror the =
US
has always sponsored and sold in other parts of the world has now begun to =
find
its way back to the symbols of American power right on the American soil, I=
ndia
must realise the futility of seeking security in the American shadow. Yet I=
ndia
is making precisely this blunder by trying to acquire the status of America=
s
most trusted and loyal ally against terrorism. This only amounts to mortgag=
ing
our diplomatic independence and initiative to the worlds biggest promoter a=
nd
peddler of terror while incurring the collective wrath of all anti-US terro=
rist
networks.

The growth of the Indian republic on a sound secular-democratic foundation =
has
always been threatened by the ugly baggage of the colonial-communal politic=
s of
divide and rule. Historically, the Sangh Parivar has been the biggest carri=
er
of this baggage and today it is trying to unload it on all spheres of India=
n
state and society. It is rendering India more fractious and feeble in all v=
ital
internal respects while the country is being forced to suffer greater
humiliation and isolation in aHl relevant international fora. Only a determ=
ined
drive of desaffronisation can save the republic from this disastrous course=
and
enable it to wage and win its real war of survival and growth.

______

#12.

The Washington Post
Sunday, January 27, 2002; Page A25

'Terrorism' Casts Shadow Over India's Campaign
Ruling Party Rallies Poor With Anti-Pakistan Rhetoric
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44074-2002Jan26.html

______

#13.

People For Peace
Between Pakistan and India
Global Vigils for Peace Between Pakistan and India
http://www.peopleforpeace.info

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