SACW | 23-25 May 2006 | Sri Lanka Women's Petition Against War; Pakistan: Shooting jirga & starvation; India: Gujarat Riot, Hunger and Assam's Insider outsider
Harsh Kapoor
aiindex at mnet.fr
Wed May 24 22:46:54 CDT 2006
South Asia Citizens Wire | 23-25 May, 2006 | Dispatch No. 2250
[1] Sri Lanka: Women's Petition Against War
[2] Pakistan: A horrendous jirga (Edit, Dawn)
[3] Pakistan: Malnutrition and starvation; government neglect in
Tharparkar District ()
[4] India - Gujarat 2006: Violence Revisited (Bina Srinivasan)
[5] India: Doubts over India's 'teeming millions' advantage (Sudha
Ramachandran)
[6] India - Assam's 'insiders' and 'outsiders':
(i) As 'indigenous' voters emerged a stronger force in Assam
(Sanjib Baruah)
(ii) illegal immigrants will continue to hang in balance, writes
Sumanta Sen
[6] Upcoming Seminar: 'Ensuring Journalists' Safety' (Karachi, May 25, 2006)
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[1]
www.sacw.net > Citizens Action & Ideas for Peace in South Asia
http://www.sacw.net/peace/NotoWar15May06.html
SRI LANKA: WOMEN SAY NO TO WAR
CALL FOR RESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOUR FROM THE STATE AND THE LTTE
15th May 2006
We voice our concern about recent developments which have yet again
raised fears of war in the minds of Sri Lankans. It is disturbing to
note that while both the Government and the LTTE claim to be
committed to the CFA, the ensuing acts of violence diminish the
integrity of an already weak peace process.
We say to both parties with no hesitation that despite their constant
rhetoric that civilians will be protected their actions have
completely disregarded the safety and security of civilian
populations. The Government and the LTTE have both failed to give
primacy to the situation of civilian populations caught in the midst
or aftermath of hostile acts. We call upon both parties to ensure the
safety and security of civilians at all times.
The litany of acts of violence over the past few weeks clearly shows
that both parties have paid scant regard to the plight of civilians.
The LTTE through the suicide attack on General Sarath Fonseka, the
recent attack on the Navy ship, the preceding increase in claymore
bombs and other attacks on military targets, extra-judicial killings
of political opponents and child recruitment, and the Government
through its failure to prevent recent attacks by armed groups on
Tamils and their homes and businesses in Trincomalee, to investigate
and prevent the daily occurrence of extra-judicial killings in
state-controlled territory; and retaliatory aerial bombardment in the
North and East, have disregarded the security and needs of the
civilian population. We would like to highlight that every such
violation further erodes trust between parties and makes the path to
peace more difficult.
The events of the past weeks and the overall manner in which both
parties have conducted themselves in the peace process do not inspire
confidence in the general populace about the commitment of either to
finding a negotiated settlement to the conflict. As stated in the
recent report of Philip Alston, UN Special Rapporteur on
Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions, the LTTE's targeting
and killing of political opponents raises doubts about its ability to
enter the democratic process. At the same time, the failure of the
Government to carry through its commitments to peace by preventing
acts of violence perpetrated by various armed groups exhibits its
shortcomings to fulfilling the undertakings made at the Geneva talks.
Further, the inadequacy of Government efforts to investigate as well
as prevent the disappearances and killings of Tamils encourages
impunity. This situation has led to the re-emergence of the
phenomenon of headless corpses and deaths in custody which have not
been addressed by the mechanisms put in place by the Government. The
existing situation has heightened the capacity for misuse of cordon
and search operations, and the indiscriminate detentions of Tamil
civilians.
We would like to reiterate, particularly to those who seek to resolve
the conflict through war that in cases of protracted conflicts
negotiation takes a considerable period of time and often suffers
numerous set backs before the issue is finally resolved. The fact
that several conflicts all over the world continue today despite
armed action by the state proves wrong the notion that military
resolution of conflict is possible.
We call upon all parties to the conflict and civilians to remember
the period of war Sri Lanka experienced and come to the realisation
that a resumption of hostilities will bring about even greater
destruction. From human casualties, damage to infrastructure and
adverse impact on the economy, to more checkpoints and cordon and
search operations, a return to war will result in the suspension of
"normality" and adversely affect every facet of life of all citizens
of Sri Lanka.
A return to hostilities will also have serious economic repercussions
for the country. As a report of the Asian Development Bank points
out, the economy continues to be sensitive to the state of the CFA
and economic forecasts for the next two years require the ceasefire
to be in place and the political situation in the country to be
stable, i.e. no outbreak of hostilities.
We therefore reiterate that both parties should abide by their
obligations under the CFA and international law, and should do so
regardless of the actions/inaction of the other. Duties and
responsibilities of each party under the CFA and international law
are independent of the actions of the other group and violation by
one party should not be used as justification for violations or
failure to act of the other party.
Both the Government and the LTTE should desist from further action
which erodes the integrity of the CFA and instead strive to find
means of common ground and continue to engage in seeking a negotiated
resolution to the conflict.
NAME SIGNATURE
1. Agnes Mendis
2. Ambika Satkunanathan
3. Amila de Mel
4. Ameena Hussein
5. Anberiya Haniffa
6. Anita Nesiah
7. Anne Abeysekera
8. Anoma Wijewardene
9. Anushya Coomaraswamy
10. Asha Abeysekera Van Dort
11. Audrey Rebera
12. Bernadeen Silva
13. Bhavani Fonseka
14. Chandani Herath
15. Chandra Hewagallage
16. Damayanthi Muthukumarage
17. Darshi Thoradeniya
18. Dr. Dushyanthi Mendis
19. Dr. Malathi de Alwis
20. Dr. Pushpa Ramlani Dissanayake
21. Dr. Selvy Thiruchandran
22. Dr. Sepali Kottegoda
23. Dulcy de Silva
24. Farzana Haniffa
25. H.M. Dayawathie
26. Hemanthi Goonasekera
27. Indira Gonsalkorale
28. Jayanthi Dandeniya
29. Jayanthi Kuru-Utumpala
30. Jean Arasanayagam
31. Jeanne Samuel
32. Kanchana Kumarasekara
33. Kishali Pinto Jayawardene
34. L.P. Mallika Manuratne
35. Maithree Wickramasingha
36. Manojani Paranawithana
37. Manouri Muttetuwegama
38. Manori Gunatileke
39. Manjula Sirimane
40. Menika Van Der Poorten
41. Menaka Selvaratnam
42. Nazreen Sansoni
43. Nehama Jayewardene
44. Nelika Rajapakse
45. Nelun Harasgama
46. Nimalka Fernando
47. Nimanthi Perera-Rajasingham
48. Nimmi Harasgama
49. Pramuditha Buddhini
50. Prof. Neloufer de Mel
51. Prof. Savitri Gunasekera
52. Prof. Nira Wickremasinghe
53. Ramani Muttetuwegama
54. Ranjani Manuelpillai
55. Rasika Deepani
56. Revati Chawla
57. Rosanna Flamer Caldera
58. Rose Fernando
59. Sanjeewani Priyangi
60. Sarala Emmanuel
61. Sarvam Kailasapathy
62. Sharmila Daluwatte
63. Sharmini Boyle
64. Sharni Jayawardena
65. Shermal Wijewardene
66. Shreen Saroor
67. Shyamala Gomez
68. Sithie Thiruchelvam
69. Soundarie David
70. Sr. Immaculate
71. Sriyanie Wijesundara
72. Stella Philips
73. Sulochana Colombage
74. Sumika Perera
75. Sunila Abeysekera
76. Sumathy Sivamohan
77. Tharumini Wijekoon
78. Thushari Madahapolla
79. Tracy Holsinger
80. Vanamali Galappathi
81. Vathsaladevi
82. Velayundan Jayachitra
83. Violet Perera
84. Visakha Dharmadasa
85. Yasmin Zarook
____
[2]
Dawn
May 24 2006
Editorial
A HORRENDOUS JIRGA
IT is rather mind-boggling to hear that a panchayat in Punjab could
so flagrantly defy the law by ordering that a legally wed couple, who
have the protection of the courts, be shot at sight. The girl, who
belongs to an influential tribe, secretly married a man of her choice
two-and-a-half years ago but recently approached the Multan bench of
the Lahore High Court seeking its protection against her father and
uncles. The court ruled that the police should protect the couple.
Undeterred, the girl's family tried to register a case against the
boy but the police refused to do so in view of the LHC orders. That
is when they turned to the panchayat which issued a shoot-at-sight
order against the couple and also asked each family in the community
to contribute Rs 5,000 so that they could "achieve their desired
goal". This kind of action is utterly stupefying. Such jirgas have no
legal standing in the country and yet some of them do not hesitate to
pronounce the ultimate penalty on some presumed violators of a
primitive tribal custom. Indeed, the panchayat being in clear
violation of the LHC ruling deserves to be held answerable for its
illegal conduct.
One hopes that the relevant authorities will take immediate notice of
how a judicial ruling is being openly defied. It is ironic that in
2003, only a few miles away from the village in question, a jirga had
passed a verdict ordering that now well known Mukhtaran Mai be
gang-raped to restore an influential family's honour. It is clear
that no lessons have been learnt from that shameful episode. Though
the judiciary is taking note of such atrocities, one cannot expect it
to step into each and every such happening. It is time the government
took up the question of the jirga system of justice and put an end to
it.
____
[3]
HUNGER ALERT HUNGER ALERT HUNGER ALERT HUNGER ALERT HUNGER ALERT
ASIAN HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION - URGENT APPEALS PROGRAM
25 May 2006
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HA-06-2006: PAKISTAN: Government neglect in drought-affected region
leaves thousands malnourished in Tharparkar District
COUNTRY: Hunger, malnutrition and starvation; government neglect;
ineffective welfare schemes
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear friends,
The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) has received information
concerning the plight of several thousand villagers suffering from
hunger and malnutrition due to the severe drought that has affected
the Tharparkar District over the past ten months. Drought has been a
common occurrence in the area, and while several welfare assistance
programmes exist in the country, the villagers in the district have
not received any form of aide. Each day the hunger situation worsens
as people continue to lose their source of livelihood due to the
drought.
The current drought in Tharparkar has left many villagers suffering
from malnutrition and other hunger-related illnesses. The villagers
rely on the consumption of milk from livestock as their primary
source of food but the drought has killed off a larger number of
animals, and milk production has severely dwindled. Livestock
comprises of almost 80 percent of the district's economy, and the
shortage of animals has also significantly decreased the villagers'
purchasing power. Thus, the victims can neither rely on animal
husbandry and farming in the village as a source of food, nor can
they afford to buy food in the markets. Potable water also does not
exist in the area anymore as most of the ground wells have gone dry.
This has increased the incidence of malnutrition and the young,
elderly and pregnant being more susceptible.
The drought has also affected other areas of the victim's lives.
Massive numbers of out-migration to unstable parts of the country has
resulted due to the lack of food, water and income in Tharparkar. By
the end of April 2006, it was estimated that 42 percent of the
village's 1,200,000 residents had left their homes in the district.
This has led to increased insecurity among women and children, a 10
percent increase in school dropouts who are now in search of
employment, and a lower cost of labour.
On December 19, 2005, the Government of Sindh, through a
notification, declared the entire district of Tharparkar as a
calamity affected area, however no relief measure have been taken
thus far in the affected area. This inaction comes in light of a
meeting recently held by the Annual Plan Coordination Committee
(APCC) in Islamabad that was expected to approve the allocation of
funds for the second phase of a relief assistance programme geared
towards drought-affected areas. The first phase, known as the Drought
Emergency Relief Assistance (DERA) was recently completed and deemed
satisfactory in providing short-term development schemes in
drought-hit areas by both the World Bank and the Asian Development
Bank. However, no relief from this assistance programme has gone
towards the victims in Tharparkar District.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
Drought has been of serious concern in the district in recent years.
Since 1990, the people in Thar have faced 11 droughts. The District
Administration has repeatedly recommended that assistance be provided
by the Government of Sindh to the affect areas, but the government
has only recognized a few of the droughts. In this drought season,
the Government of Sindh has only provide subsidized wheat for two of
the ten months that the drought has persisted, and all agricultural
taxes and fines were still levied despite the area being considered
in a state of calamity. Part of the problem stems from the procedure
in which a district can be declared as drought-affected; it usually
takes between three to eight months for the Government of Sindh to
approve the notification by the district administration and even more
time to provide assistance, causing even further malnutrition in the
interim period.
Several civil society organizations have come together in order to
address these concerns and draft a better system in which
drought-affected areas can be declared and assistance can be
provided. Drafts and proposals from these organizations, many which
have also been shared with the Prime Minister, Chief Minister of
Sindh and several other government officials, include the following
recommendations:
- The Sindh Calamity Act 1958 must be amended and reformulated as a
Drought and Disaster Policy.
- The district government need be delegated the power to declare any
area as a calamity-hit area in a timely manner.
- A special fund in the annual budget of the Sindh and Federal
government should be allocated, and the district government must be
authorized to utilize the funds.
- The Union Council leaders should be authorized to distribute relief
goods in their respective union councils.
- A separate department should also be set up to cope with disaster
conditions, at the district and provincial level.
SUGGESTED ACTION:
Please write to the relevant authorities below, urging them to
investigate the hunger situation that has resulted from the drought
in Tharparkar. Food and relief assistance must be immediately
provided to the victims. Furthermore, the steps taken in
drought-affected areas must be modified. Please urge the government
officials below to examine the procedure taken in calamity-affected
areas and request that the district government is given more
authority and funds to allow for them to provide assistance in an
appropriate and timely manner.
Suggested Letter:
Dear ____________
RE: PAKISTAN: Government neglect in drought-affected region leaves
thousands malnourished in Tharparkar District
I am writing to you to voice my concerns over reports of severe
malnutrition that exists in the Tharparkar District as a result of a
severe drought that has affected the area for the past ten months.
Drought has been a common occurrence in the area, and while several
welfare assistance programmes exist in the country, the villagers in
the district have not received any form of aide. Each day the hunger
situation worsens as people continue to lose their source of
livelihood due to the drought.
I was informed that the incidence of malnutrition and hunger-related
diseases has increased in several months. The villagers rely on the
consumption of milk from livestock as their primary source of food
but the drought has killed off a larger number of animals, and milk
production has severely dwindled. Livestock comprises of almost 80
percent of the district's economy, and the shortage of animals has
also significantly decreased the villagers' purchasing power. Thus,
the victims can neither rely on animal husbandry and farming in the
village as a source of food, nor can they afford to buy food in the
markets. Potable water also does not exist in the area anymore as
most of the ground wells have gone dry.
It has also been reported that the drought has also affected other
areas of the victim's lives, who live abject poverty. Massive numbers
of out-migration to unstable parts of the country has resulted due to
the lack of food, water and income in Tharparkar. By the end of April
2006, it was estimated that 42 percent of the village's 1,200,000
residents had left their homes in the district. This has led to
increased insecurity among women and children, a 10 percent increase
in school dropouts who are now in search of employment, and a lower
cost of labour.
Although the district has been affected by drought for the past ten
months, and on ten other occasions in the last 17 years, little
assistance from the Government of Sindh has been provided. It was not
until early this year that two months of subsidized grain was
provided to the victims, however this is insufficient in providing
any kind of relief to the starving villagers.
It was brought to my attention that several relief programmes do
exists in the country for calamity-hit areas, however Tharparkar has
not received any assistance. Thus, I strongly urge you to investigate
this matter and provide immediate relief assistance to the victims in
the affected district. I was also informed that there are several
delays and problems exist in the current relief programmes for
drought-affected areas. Therefore, I also strongly urge you to modify
the system in which drought-affected areas can be declared and
assistance can be provided. This should include a separate fund and
agency dedicated to drought relief, as well as complete autonomy and
authority of the district administration to provide assistance in an
appropriate and timely manner.
I trust you will take immediate action in this matter.
Yours sincerely,
---
PLEASE SEND LETTERS TO:
1. Mr. Arbab Anwar Jabbar
District Nazim - Tharparkar
PAKISTAN
Telefax: +92 23 426 1308
2. Mr. Muhammad Nasir Khan
Federal Minister for Health
Block C, Pak Secretariat
Islamabad
PAKISTAN
Tel: +92 51 921 3933
Fax: +92 51 920 3944
PLEASE SEND COPIES TO:
1. General Pervez Musharraf
President
Pakistan Secretariat
Islamabad
PAKISTAN
Fax: +92 51 922 4768/ 920 1893 or 1835
Email: CE at pak.gov.pk
2. Mrs. Saira Karim
Joint Secretary for Law, Justice and Human Rights
Islamabad
PAKISTAN
Tel: + 92 51 920 2819
Fax: + 92 51 920 3119
3. Mr. Ishrat-ul- Ibad Khan
Governor
Government of Sindh
Governor House Karachi
PAKISTAN
Tel: + 92 21 920 1201
Email: governor at governorsindh.gov.pk
4. Ms. Raana Syed
UNICEF - Karachi
PO Box 2023
59-B Sindh Muslim Housing Co-operative Society
Karachi - 7440
PAKISTAN
Tel: +92 21 454 9525
Fax: +92 21 454 9529
Email: Karachi at unicef.org
____
[4]
GUJARAT 2006: VIOLENCE REVISITED
by Bina Srinivasan (May 24, 2006)
We saw it once again. A dargah was violated in the name of development.
There was police firing and what not. The news was available news on the
national televison network. The Rashiddudin Chisti dargah in Vadodara was
an old dargah - perhaps it deserved to be demolished.
However, nobody can now understand or justify the police van that occupies
the mazaar/dargah, obstructing traffic even more than the dargah ever did,
because the van is bigger than the dargah ever was or aspired o be.
Vadodara saw large scale violence again. Vadodara was a frightened city
once again.
How does one put in words the sensation of fear, of terror, and dread?
Hindus and Muslims on the rampage. This time it was not genocide or carnage
in Vadodara. It was a full scale communal riot. Of the kind we have
witnessed many times in the past. In 1991 we saw six months of curfew and
after that people saw to it that their lives intermingled again. Hindus and
Muslims did it together. Post 2002, after the anti Muslim pogroms we saw
communities reaching out to each other - in suspended hostility perhaps -
but at least, they recognized neighborhood. For the moment, that is enough
to be thankful about.
Hats off to Muslims and Hindus living in the lanes and by-lanes of this old
city.
I am scared. Perhaps, I am being too pessimistic. Life moves on. So do
communities.
Soon after the Vadodara flare up we saw another horrendous crime. Two young
kids - aged 4 and 7 - were brutally murdered, intestines prised out and so
on, found in a homeopathic doctor's car in Dabhoi, a town 30 kilometers away
from Vadodara - very much in Gujarat. Yes, the doctor is allegedly part of
an Hindtuva organization. And yes, the children are of Muslim origin.
There are issues within issues. As secular, democratic forces/actors we
need to look at these very carefully. Let us look at the criminal justice
system very carefully. In India, as well as elsewhere, for example the US.
How does the criminal justice establishment manage to violate the rights of
the very people they are meant to protect? How do we, as democractic
'determined' minds deal with the state. A state, for example, that says
very clearly that, if your house has been burnt and you were busy trying to
get a disabled brother into a safe shelter, you can only file a First
Information Report (FIR) if you acknowledge that you were 'involved in
rioting and because of that you were attacked and your house was burnt'. No
doubt the person in question is a Muslim. He has lost everything: his
house, his belongings. Now he faces a criminal charge.
Justice? Fill in the blank.
____
[5]
Asia Times
May 5, 2006
DOUBTS OVER INDIA'S 'TEEMING MILLIONS' ADVANTAGE
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Long considered a dead weight on its economic
development, India's massive population is increasingly regarded by
experts as an asset that could lift the country to economic
greatness. But the billion-dollar question is whether the government
will adopt the kind of policies essential to make this mammoth
population a boon rather than a burden.
India's population, which stood at 340 million at the time of
independence in 1947, is more than 1.1 billion today and is
expected to touch 1.4 billion in 2025 and 1.6 billion in 2050. The
second-most-populous country, it accounts for one-sixth of the
world's population and accommodates this on one-fortieth of the
Earth's land mass.
For decades, Indian planners have pondered how to reduce the pressure
of population on ever-dwindling resources. No social-welfare program
seemed to make a dent because of the vastness of every
population-related problem. Whatever economic development was
achieved was swamped by a rapidly multiplying population. The
"population problem", Indians despaired, was the most important
obstacle in the path of their country's economic progress.
But the "teeming millions", experts are now saying, might not be such
a big problem after all. It may be the solution.
The size of India's population might be daunting, but its age
structure opens possibilities. The fact that India's population
bulges in the prime working-age group (15-59) is a major plus, say
experts. About 35% of its population today is in that group, and this
is expected to peak around 2020 when about 64% of the country's total
population will belong to the working-age group.
The populations of Europe and Japan are already graying, and the
working-age populations of the United States and China are projected
to shrink too in the next two decades. By 2020 the US will be short
17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan 9 million
and Russia 6 million. However, India will have a surplus of 47
million people, giving the country a competitive edge in labor costs,
which will be sustainable up to 2050, according to a study by Goldman
Sachs.
Economists say India will catch up with the Chinese economy beginning
in 2030, when the latter could cool off as the result of an aging
population. "The window of opportunity offered by a population bulge
has clearly opened for India," points out noted economist C P
Chandrasekhar of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. After
decades of evoking despair, India's demographic profile is finally
beginning to stir hope.
But not everyone views the population bulge with such optimism. Some
analysts say it is not enough to have a young population. The
working-age population needs to be healthy and literate.
India's score on this, while improving, is certainly not inspiring.
About 50% of all Indian children are undernourished, a large
percentage of them born with protein deficiency (which affects brain
development and learning capacity, among other things). This is
hardly the ideal foundation for a productive workforce, as the
likelihood of a malnourished child growing up to be an able adult is
rather dim.
There is also the question of whether the population has the skills
and knowledge to take on India's future work. Literacy has improved
dramatically over the years - just 14% of the population was literate
in 1947 versus about 64.8% today - but many who are classified as
literate can barely read or write. And 40% of those who enroll in
primary schools drop out by age 10. The curriculum in the schools,
especially the government-run ones, does not prepare the child for
the domestic job market, let alone the global one. The huge
"workforce" might not be qualified to do the work.
Moreover, India's rich and educated classes are preferring to have
small families, so the additions to the population are coming largely
from the poor, illiterate sections in society. Nicholas Eberstadt,
who researches demographics at the Washington-based American
Enterprise Institute, points out that while India's overall
population profile will remain relatively youthful, "this is an
arithmetic expression averaging diverse components of a vast nation.
Closer examination reveals two demographically distinct Indias: the
north that stays remarkably young over the next 20 years, and a south
already graying rapidly due to low fertility."
Yet India's north is far more backward than the south. On almost
every socio-economic indicator the north scores poorly. The young
population that the country is setting its hopes on might not be
qualified to take up the challenge.
There is a danger of India squandering its demographic edge if it
does not act rapidly to invest in human capital. India's population
policy - it was the first in the world to come out with one - has
hitherto focused on population control. This was essential given the
large population base and the high growth rate. Steps were taken to
limit family size, and incentives were given to couples to adopt
permanent birth-control measures.
But with the growth rate stabilizing, planners are said to be less
alarmed about the size of the population and more concerned with its
quality. And with economists pointing to the demographic edge that
India has in terms of age structure, the need to improve the quality
of the population is quietly gaining ground in government circles.
The definition of the "population problem" appears to be slowly
changing, says a government official. "Efforts to improve literacy
have been stepped up. Last year, the government made schooling
compulsory for all children under 14 and pledged to double spending
on education from the current 3% of gross domestic product," he
pointed out.
But making schooling compulsory alone isn't the answer to the
problem. Children stay away from schools because teaching is
uninspiring, schools lack infrastructure and education doesn't
guarantee a job. Public-health issues cannot be addressed simply by
opening more hospitals. The government needs to provide safe drinking
water and improve sanitation. To improve the quality of the
population, "India has to fire on all cylinders simultaneously,"
points out the Daily News Analysis. If it does not, "the demographic
dividend could well turn into a burden", it warns.
Clearly, it is still too early to celebrate India's population or to
look on it as an asset in its quest for economic greatness. It
continues to pose problems. Whether India will ride the demographic
wave or get swamped by it depends on how swiftly the government moves
to improve the quality of India's children today and those yet to be
born.
Sudha Ramachandran is an independent journalist/researcher based in Bangalore.
_____
[6] ASSAM: The insiders and outsiders
(i)
The Telegraph
May 15, 2006
NEW PLAYERS IN A NEW REGIONAL GAME
As 'indigenous' voters emerged a stronger force in Assam, Sanjib
Baruah explains how the Congress's strategic alliance with Hagrama
Mohilary paid off
Hagrama Mohilary (third from left) with Tarun Gogoi (extreme right)
The election results in Assam are not a simple victory of a national
party, the Congress, over a regional party, the Asom Gana Parishad.
The ability of the chief minister, Tarun Gogoi, to edge out his
regional party rival as a more reliable defender of regional
interests significantly contributed to the Congress victory. Gogoi
convinced many 'indigenous' voters - a euphemistic, yet necessary,
term for navigating Assam's politics - that he may be able to defend
their interests better than the self-proclaimed regional party. The
change of the name of the state from Assam to Asom a few weeks before
the elections was hardly a minor signal. A national party with a
regional outlook is how Hiteswar Saikia had once described the Assam
Congress. For Saikia, that was political rhetoric, or at best a
political dream. Gogoi has done it through actual political
coalition-building.
As many had predicted, the Supreme Court's invalidation of the
Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act was a major issue in
the recent election. The Congress responded by proclaiming the
Foreigners (Tribunals for Assam) Order of 2006. The Bharatiya Janata
Party and the AGP cried foul and said that the Congress has brought
back the IMDT Act through the backdoor. Large segments of the
'minorities', dissatisfied with the Congress's inability to defend
the IMDT Act, betted on perfume mogul Badruddin Azmal's Assam United
Democratic Front. Incidentally, the euphemism, 'minority', has a
particular meaning in Assam, and its antonym is not 'majority', but
'indigenous'.
Azmal expected to become kingmaker in the event of a hung assembly
and hoped to have major influence on any new government. But the
political appearance of the AUDF - funded by Azmal's deep pockets -
scared many 'indigenous' voters who had traditionally backed the AGP.
Azmal's party won 10 seats - pretty much the number he thought would
give him that political leverage. But since the results have come
out, Azmal has been busy more in damage control than in influence
peddling.
The party that acquired the influence that Azmal had fantasized
about, and won one more seat than the AUDF, is the faction of the
Bodoland People's Progressive Forum led by Hagrama Mohilary. And on
the key regional issue in post-IMDT Assam - illegal immigration from
Bangladesh - Mohilary and Azmal are in opposite camps.
Mohilary and other Bodo militant leaders today evoke more confidence
among many 'indigenous' voters on the illegal immigration question
than the AGP. While Bodo leaders are not vocal participants in the
IMDT debate, they are trusted not for their words, but because of
their track record in Bodo-dominated areas.
Hagrama Mohilary is perhaps the single biggest winner of this
election: a remarkable achievement for a relative newcomer to
electoral politics. Until about two years ago, he was the leader of
the dreaded Bodo Liberation Tigers. His organization was disbanded
only in December 2003 following an accord signed with the Central and
state governments. Last year's elections to the Bodoland Territorial
Autonomous Council gave Mohilary his first chance to display his
style of electoral politics. That was when the political partnership
between him and the state Congress began.
The formation of the BTAC was the result of both the BLT's armed
struggle and the overground political mobilization by the All Bodo
Students' Union. The BPPF includes both camps of the Bodo movement.
However, in the BTAC elections, Mohilary put up his former BLT
colleagues as independent candidates against official BPPF
candidates. There were violent clashes between Mohilary loyalists and
ABSU supporters and allegations of vote rigging led to re-poll in two
constituencies. Mohilary himself won his seat uncontested -
apparently a prestige symbol for former militants adjusting to
democracy because it proclaims unchallenged political dominance.
Unlike the BJP and AGP, the Congress did not put up any official
candidates in the BTAC elections. It allowed the Congress to remain
on the best of terms with all factions of the Bodo leadership and
wait and see before developing an electoral strategy. When the
Mohilary-led BTAC was sworn in, Tarun Gogoi and three of his
ministerial colleagues attended the ceremony, but top leaders of the
BPPF stayed away. In the assembly elections, the alliance between the
Mohilary faction and the Congress was quite open. The Congress did
not put up candidates in five constituencies and asked its supporters
to vote for BPPF(H) candidates.
While Bodo-specific issues such as additional developmental funds for
the BTAC area and more powers to the BTAC, are likely to be
priorities for the BPPF(H), the party also attaches enormous
significance to state-wide matters. Since the election results, its
spokesman, Khampa Borgoyary, has spoken of "indigenous ethnic groups"
having a significant say in the running of the state government "for
the first time since Independence." This, he says, has been
facilitated by an attitudinal change of the state Congress
leadership. Solving the problem of illegal immigration will be a
priority for his party because it concerns "all the indigenous people
of the state."
The historic emergence of Bodo leaders as more trusted defenders of
'indigenous' interests becomes particularly apparent when their
spectacular electoral success is contrasted with the defeat of the
AGP in almost the entire Upper Assam - a stronghold of AGP-style
regionalism.
To be sure, Gogoi himself did not spare any efforts to address the
concerns of 'minorities' after the court struck down the IMDT law. He
supported the amendment of the Foreigners Order and criticized
statements by political opponents and by the state governor about
thousands of Bangladeshis entering Assam through the porous border.
But unlike his political rival, the state Congress president,
Bhubaneswar Kalita, Gogoi persistently called Azmal's AUDF party
"communal" and showed no interest in an alliance. That gave him high
marks from 'indigenous' opinion-makers and voters.
The contrast with the AGP could not be more striking. Just before the
vote-count began, the AGP announced that it would ally with AUDF to
form a new government. "Barring the issue of illegal migration from
Bangladesh," said party president Brindabon Goswami, "there is not
much of difference between the AGP and the AUDF. Both parties have
regional aspirations and it will be easier to work with them."
In coming days, there will be many challenges to the brand new
political equation that has emerged in Assam. There is already a
feeling in Congress circles that while the support of the BPPF(H) and
a few independents may enable the party to form the government, the
party cannot afford a further erosion of its traditional support
among 'minorities'. Thanks to the AUDF's success, the number of
'minority' Congress legislators has come down to eight from thirteen
in the previous assembly. There is pressure to get the AUDF on board.
And not surprisingly, the pressure has come from New Delhi as much as
from the grassroots. It was the Congress observer, Digvijay Singh,
who said in Guwahati,"it will be only 'thanks' from us if AUDF comes
forward to support us." Ajmal has already expressed a desire to meet
Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
The next few days will determine whether the new regional attire of
the Assam Congress - the Bodo dokhona rather than the Assamese gamosa
- is only a temporary electoral fashion or the sign of a significant
regionalization of a national party.
The author is at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi,
and Bard College, Annandale-on- Hudson, New York
o o o
(ii)
The Telegraph
May 11, 2006
THE UNFOLDING OF A GREATER TRAGEDY
Assam may get a new government after the elections but the fate of
illegal immigrants will continue to hang in balance, writes Sumanta
Sen
Driven out
Along with four other states, Assam is also waiting for the results
of the just-concluded elections which would be announced today. The
immediate point of interest is whether the Congress will be able to
retain power in the state. The answer to that, however, may not have
much bearing on the real issues confronting Assam. A Congress
victory, or otherwise, will not touch either of the two core issues
in the state - namely the separatist agitation of the United
Liberation Front of Asom and the fate of the Bengali minorities who
are believed to be residing illegally in the Brahmaputra valley.
Thus, while the people would have made their choices regarding their
future rulers, the latter, going by past indications, would be found
wanting when the time comes to address the two issues.
And therein lies the tragedy of Assam. For the last quarter of a
century, the state has been rocked by violence either related to the
'foreigner' issue or for a separate political identity even as the
first question remained unanswered. No answer has been found either
in Guwahati or in New Delhi. The much-acclaimed Assam Accord brokered
by Rajiv Gandhi did see a return of the agitationists to the
constitutional path, but that was all. The reason behind the
agitation stays as valid today as it was then. Meanwhile ministries
have come and gone both in the state and the Centre but the hapless
minorities still have the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads.
The question is whether a whole lot of people have the right to live
in Assam or not. The issue, admittedly, is sensitive but just because
it is so, the powers that be cannot avoid it. Yet that is exactly
what has been happening in all these years with the authorities
choosing to take refuge behind all kinds of legal niceties. Indeed,
even as this issue remains alive, New Delhi has chosen to take up the
other issue of violence and decided to contain it with huge dollops
of funds. The Ulfa, clearly, has not been impressed. But more of that
later.
Coming back to the illegal immigrants. The subject featured in a big
way in the recent elections with the United Democratic Front leaders
once again championing the cause of the minorities as they are only
expected to do. On the other end of the pole was the Bharatiya Janata
Party, and to a fair extent, the two factions of the Asom Gana
Parishad, none of which this time was allied to the BJP. The
Congress, as is usual in such a scenario, was found sitting on the
fence, seeking to appease both the ethnic Assamese and the Bengali
minority - the results may well show that the party has ended up
pleasing none. The left is too weak in the state to be of any account
and at least the Communist Party of India (Marxist) has made it clear
that it will be happy with just four seats in a house of 126. The
Communist Party of India also cannot be hoping for anything more.
Overall the forecast is for a hung assembly.
So what happens then? President's rule (which nobody wants) or a post
poll coalition? The first arrangement that comes to mind is a
Congress-UDF coalition as neither of the two parties can align with
the BJP or the two factions of the AGP. And if such a coalition takes
over at Dispur, what will be the fate of the illegal immigrants?
A safe forecast is that their fate will continue to hang in the
balance. For apart from the divergence of views held by the two
parties, how on earth can a large number of people be deported after
they have lived and worked on Assamese soil for so many decades?
Tribunals, commissions, call the authorities by whatever name you
will, may identify some people as foreigners but who is to say that
the process of identification is foolproof? Then again, in Assam, it
has been repeatedly seen that certain political forces are against
Bengali-speaking people, irrespective of whether they came during
British rule or after 1971. The reason behind such a mindset is
basically economic: the Bengali minorities have turned land which was
left fallow into high-yielding areas and the ethnic Assamese would
like to have the pie for themselves.
Here a parallel can be had in the Greater Cooch Behar agitation in
North Bengal. There also, the rajgan (those who were close to the
palace) leaders sat up only after refugees from East Pakistan had
shown what fallow land was capable of yielding. Hence the cry went up
against bahe (outsiders) and today there is the demand for a separate
Greater Cooch Behar. Those who believe that economics can be kept
separate from politics would perhaps do well to take note of this.
It may be argued that people identified, no matter how questionable
the process maybe, should be thrown out. Fine, but who will receive
them? Bangladesh will most certainly not accept them as it just
cannot afford to shoulder the responsibility of feeding more mouths.
'Kick them out of Mumbai', roars the Shiv Sena in the nation's
commercial capital but its partner, the BJP, did not dare to do so in
Assam. It did not do so because no government can be that
irresponsible.
Yet, there must be a way out. Uncertainty and suspicion cannot be
allowed to persist. Simple ways are often the best and perhaps the
only way to register all these people as Indian citizens. Surely this
has happened in other countries. Not all Asians in Brit
____
[7]
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2006, from 3:30pm to 5pm, at the PPF Vicky Zeitlin Media Library,
Press Centre, Shahrah Kamal Ataturk, Karachi.
The seminar will discuss the ways to ensure greater protection and
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investigating sensitive issues.
Invited Speakers:
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Mr. Mazhar Abbas, General Secretary, Pakistan Federal Union of
Journalists (PFUJ)
Mr. Najeeb Ahmad, Secretary, Karachi Press Club
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Chief Fire Officer and DO Civil defence, City District Government
Karachi
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documentation and training centre working to promote and defend
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Director
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Buzz on the perils of fundamentalist politics, on
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