[sacw] sacw dispatch (9 Dec.99)

[Harsh Kapoor]

South Asia Citizens Web Dispatch
9 December 1999
------------------------------------------
#1. To Help Put Pakistan Right
#2. South Asians Cab divers in NY and their organiser
#3. Temple plan to unleash violence in Gujarat (India)
#4. Hindu fanatics's planning rally on Christmas
#5. Migrants face bleak future in Pakistan
#6. IPARMW #5 (9 Dec, 1999)
------------------------------------------
#1.
International Herald Tribune
Paris, Wednesday, December 8, 1999

TO HELP PUT PAKISTAN RIGHT, GET THE EXPORTED MONEY BACK
By Mansoor Ijaz
WASHINGTON-Since its founding, few of Pakistan's people have believed in
its destiny to survive as an example of moderate Islamic values. Fatalism
prompted elected civilians to plunder the country's wealth in order to
retain power. It excused army generals to seize the reins from them when
the coffers were empty.

This past Oct. 12, the army seized power. Can a fractured society finally
be healed of its corrosive influences by authoritarian rule, all the while
learning to subordinate the military to elected governments?

Preventing further disintegration in Pakistan's institutions will not be
easy. Important structural and interlocking policy reforms are needed for
this nuclear-capable nation to emerge from its perpetual state of crisis.

Economic stabilization must be achieved through investment of recovered
wealth held abroad, instead of continued reliance on foreign loans.
Accountability has to produce a genuine system of checks and balances
without leaving a trail of brutality and executions. And existing
democratic institutions need to be revitalized by breaking up Pakistan's
feudal system.

Systematically recovering looted wealth held abroad could become a primary
generator for reviving the country's economic prospects. UN estimates put
the amount of money stolen from official coffers at a staggering $50
billion. Some $30 billion of this may have made its way to Swiss banks and
other havens during the past decade through the largesse of civilian rulers.

Jailing high-profile politicians and feudal landlords with local assets
that are a pittance compared with the sums held abroad is scant
improvement. Much more needs to be done.The arithmetic of recovering wealth
outside the country is compelling: $1.5 billion equals three months of
imports, one year's interest payments on IMF loans, or enough money,
invested properly, to build and operate 50,000 rural schools for a decade-
enough time to begin reversing the dangerous effects that radical religious
schools have had since the Afghan war ended in 1990.

Recovered wealth could become a source of investment to revive decrepit
industrial infrastructure that provides basic staples like water and power
to Pakistani citizens. For example, fully 42 percent of all electricity
generated in Pakistan is lost through leakage and theft.

An investment of just $200 million in computer software, hardware and
other basic administrative collection machinery-rather than building more
nuclear bombs-could easily halve the loss rate, boosting net revenues and
paving the way for ultimately lowering tariffs that have been repeatedly
increased during the past decade under burdensome IMF lending
prescriptions. Lower tariffs would mean more domestic savings and
purchasing power that could drive a domestic-sector-led recovery.

Judges throughout the politicized judicial system should be required to
disclose assets and liabilities not just for themselves but for members of
extended families as well. Transparent adjudication would address the
pervasive sense of injustice in Pakistani society today.

Neither investment of recovered wealth nor accountability can found
civilian rule again unless the army breaks up Pakistan's repressive feudal
culture. Indian democracy, for example, withstood fairly comprehensive land
reforms without large-scale upheaval at the time of partition in 1947.

Pakistan's generals, who have popular support, should take this
opportunity to bring about important change. Such reforms would promote
freer voter participation and result in the election of figures who
genuinely represent the people.

The army should use its influence with religious leaders to encourage a
more enlightened vision of Islam.

Fundamentalists have as yet failed to win a meaningful parliamentary voice
through the normal election process because of Pakistan's feudal politics.
The army could perhaps provide a forum for their views, such as a religious
council under the army's control. Radicalism, after all, is a manifestation
of an inability to express grievances in a more constructive way.

Finally, there is India. The bilateral obsession has wrecked both
economies and destabilized each side's politics. One side needs to decide
that there is strength in peace. Pakistan's army is perhaps its only
institution capable of making a lasting peace with India that can be
supported by the people and then endure under civilian rule.

It is imperative that Pakistani forces move back along the Line of Control
in Kashmir. But overwhelming domestic instabilities require that Indiagive
Pakistan's generals some breathing room. This means toning down rhetoric,
ending nuclear and conventional saber-rattling and de-escalating India's
military presence in Kashmir.

What ails Pakistan cannot be fixed with threats, coercion, sanctions or
isolationism. The fatalists must realize that this is the country's last
chance to emerge as the moderate Islamic democracy its founders envisioned.

The alternative is a breakdown of the federation, rabid sectarian
violence, a breeding ground for terrorists and loss of control over a
nuclear capacity that could then edge closer to the waiting arms of
extremists.

The writer, chairman of Crescent Investment Management in New York,
contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.
-----------------------
# 2.
The New York Times
Dec. 8, 1999
PUBLIC LIVES

AN UNLIKELY ORGANIZER AS CABDRIVERS UNITE
By JOYCE WADLER

Photo: Bhairavi Desai, 27, says life as a poor person and immigrant
politicized her. (Ruby Washington/The New York Times)

IT has been a long time since there was a face to go with the taxi drivers
when they had a gripe, and now, more and more, the face belongs to a
27-year-old woman named Bhairavi Desai, an organizer for the New York Taxi
Workers' Alliance. She has never driven a cab, but unlike most of the
people she represents, she has had the benefits of a college education in
this country.

So what's a Rutgers graduate doing with the cabdrivers?

You will forgive her if she has a tendency to speak in a kind of
Marxist-labor jargon. (She also giggles if you call her Ms. Desai - it
seems so serious, she says.) It's just on labor that this is the way she
is.

''I had been politicized most of my life, by my experience as a poor person
and immigrant,'' Ms. Desai says. ''I wanted to work around issues of class
and labor, and what is a better community than taxi drivers?''

There are about 40,000 yellow-cab drivers in New York City, and they have
no union. Nor have they had a unified voice. But lately this has been
changing, and much of the credit is given to Bhairavi Desai (pronounced
BAY-rah-vee Dah-SIGH) and the 2,000-member alliance.

Ms. Desai, in communal spirit, calls herself merely an organizer, but she
has been organizing well. It was the alliance, with another group, the
United Yellow Cab Company, that helped mount the cabbies' 24-hour work
stoppage last year after the mayor introduced stiff penalties against
drivers. More recently, the group has been responding to the complaint of
the actor Danny Glover that five cabbies passed him by because he is black.

Ms. Desai, adding her quiet voice to a forum on the matter at Pace
University last weekend, said that many cabbies turned down fares to the
boroughs outside Manhattan because they thought they could earn more money
in Manhattan. She also added, ''None of this justifies people being denied
services.''

Does she deny that there is racism among cab drivers? ''The taxi industry
does not exist in a vacuum,'' Ms. Desai says at the alliance office on West
27th Street. ''It's reflective of a larger society itself.''

If, by the way, you are one of those people who fret about labor leaders'
having fat paychecks, you will be cheered by Ms. Desai. The labor leader's
winter coat is a double hand-me-down: a cousin gave it to Ms. Desai's
mother, who works in a factory. Ms. Desai's salary is $1,500 a month. She
lives in Jersey City, where her rent is $550.

As for her background, Ms. Desai was born in Gujarat, India , near Bombay,
and concerns about social justice were a family matter. Her grandmother
told Ms. Desai and her two older brothers stories of being arrested in the
fight for independence for India ; Ms. Desai's father was a lawyer, who
also ''fought for the rights of the underprivileged.''

WHEN Ms. Desai was 6 the family moved to the United States, settling in
Harrison, N.J.

''It was Reaganomics,'' Ms. Desai says dryly, putting her childhood in an
eco-political frame. ''It was the end of affirmative action, but it wasn't
the end of racism. My father ended up buying a small grocery store; my
mother got factory work. To me it really is a powerful image, my mother
very new to America, kind of hitting the streets with my brother, going
from factory to factory filling out applications.

''There's a lie about immigrants in America: You don't get handed jobs; you
work very hard to find jobs. A grocery store is almost the same as a taxi;
you work 70 to 80 hours a week. We were fortunate, because the store was
almost like in the back of our apartment and there was a little bell set
up, so if my father needed help he could ring a bell and my brothers and I
would come out and help.''

That's almost Pavlovian, Ms. Desai is told - as if she had been programmed
to help people.

''It's also the nature of immigrant life in America,'' Ms. Desai says.
''Labor becomes a family activity. I think it's much more revealing of
economic need than of individual personality.''

Marx might agree, but Freud would not.

''That's probably why I'm much more drawn to Marx than to Freud,'' Ms.
Desai says.

Ms. Desai realized just how poor her family was when she applied for
college aid - they were living below the poverty level. She graduated from
Rutgers University in 1994 with a degree in women's studies, then worked
with battered women.

At 23, Ms. Desai became involved with the Committee Against Anti-Asian
violence, which was organizing a group in New York called the Lease Drivers
Coalition. She caught drivers during their shift changes or breaks, at
garages and at restaurant hangouts; she asked about their concerns,
followed up with phone calls.

In August 1997, the group organized a demonstration of 2,000 yellow cabs at
14th Street and Avenue D - a move, Ms. Desai said, that brought them to a
bargaining position with the Taxi and Limousine Commission. In February
1998, Ms. Desai and several other organizers, seeking more independence,
created the New York Taxi Workers' Alliance.

Why, again, is this woman whose parents sacrificed for her to have a better
life, working like, well, a taxi driver? ''I believe it's not just my
parents that put me into college,'' she says. ''It's the sacrifice of the
working men and women in the country, of the immigrants in this country. I
think I owe them something in return.''
-----------------------
#3.
The Times of India, Ahmedabad, Wednesday,
December 8, 1999, Late City Edition, Page 1

SHILANYAS MAY UNLEASH VIOLENCE IN SOUTH GUJARAT

By A Staff Reporter
AHMEDABD:The Hindu Jagran Manch move to hold the foundation stone-laying
ceremony for a Ram temple at Halmodi village in Vyara taluka of Surat
district on Christmas eve may provide the spark for renewed violence in
South Gujarat.
The authorities feel the timing of the shilanyas is designed to engineer
violence on the same lines as was witnessed in the Dangs last year.
A team of Surat police officers led district superintendent of police
(rural) V.M. Parghi visited the village on Tuesday following worried
querries from the Union home ministry. The United Christian Forum for Human
Rights (UCFHR) held a meeting in Ahmedabad on Tuesday to discuss the issue.
Officials here, pointing out that the Dangs district had witnessed
widespread violence between Christmas and New Year in 1998, feel this time
around, the focus may shift to other South Gujarat areas.
Pamphlets issued by Manch leader Janubhai Pawar, who had spearheaded the
campaign in the Dangs last year, are in circulation in the Dangs district
and Vyara and Songadh talukas of Surat District. Sources say the
focus of the build-up this year is Halmodi, which has a predominantly
Christian population, most of them Protestants. In 1995, a tribal,
Ukadiabhai, had converted to Christianity and a small chapel was built on
his land.
In 1997, Ukadiabhai was taken back into the Hindu fold under a campaign
launched by some groups. Following this, the Hindus demanded the land back,
but the Christians refused to hand it over. Later, a compromise was arrived
at and the hall returned to Ukadiabhai, while the furniture was retained by
the Christians.
In March this year, the Hindus registered a complaint that a photograph of
Lord Ram had been destroyed in the hall. DSP Parghi said on inquiry the
complaint was found to be false.
A fortnight back, the administration had to intervene when the two
communities came face to face over a proposal to build a temple. The
Christians had then given it in writing that they had no claim over the
hall. However, the Manch sprung a surprise, announcing it would perform the
shilanyas on December 24 and that the ceremony would extend late into the
night. The Police fear this is certain to spark trouble as the land is
adjacent to a Roman Catholic chapel. "We have told the organizers that they
can start building the temple, but only in January 2000," says Parghi. The
police are quoting a recent government circular which bans any organization
from holding ceremonies which infringes on the festival of another
community. The circular has been issued in the wake of the incidents at
Ahwa (Dangs) last year, after the Hindu Jagran Manch was allowed to take
out a rally on Christmas day. The authorities are having difficulty
convincing the Hindu organizations which claim that Christmas eve is not a
'festival day'. One leader has gone on record asking if Pope John Paul II
could be allowed to visit India during Diwali, why Hindus couldn=EDt initiat=
e
work on a temple on Christmas day. In Gandhinagar, minister of state for
home Haren Pandya said the government would not allow a repeat of the Dangs
incidents and was maintaining close watch over the situation. Dangs DSP
Manoj Shashidhar told The Times of India that the police were observing a
vigil, especially around shrines, and wouldn=EDt allow any organization to
take out rallies. "So far nobody has asked permission to take out a rally,"
he said, reacting to pamphlets issued by Janubhai Pawar for a 'mammoth
rally against activities of Christian missionaries' in Ahwa on December 25.
---------------
#4.
The Times of India, Ahmedabad,
December 8, 1999, page 5.

MANCH RALLY LIKELY TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE FOR CHRISTIANS

The Times of India News Service
SURAT. The Hindu Jagran Manch's plan to take out a massive rally in the
Dangs district headquarter of Ahwa on Christmas day has sent a shiver down
the spines of Christians who were brazenly targeted by the Vishwa Hindu
Parishad and the Bajrang Dal around the same time last year. For the rally
organizers, the home department circular prohibiting any rally on a
festival day of another religion is not worth the paper on which it has
been printed. The Manch has not clarified on what kind of a rally it
proposes to organize. A pamphlet announcing the rally is being circulated
in the villages and hamlets dotting the hilly slopes of the district. It
states the rally will be addressed by 'Jagatguru Shankaracharyaji' and
Acharya Dharmendra Maharaj. While the Christians are scared out of their
wits, the claims and counter-claims being made by the authorities and the
Manch leaders are adding to the confusion. DSP Manoj Shashidharan, who was
posted after last year=EDs incidents, says the pamphlet was printed more tha=
n
45 days ago. "When I called the Manch leaders, they told me categorically
that the rally will not be held as the speakers will not be able to make
it." He says the administration will tackle the issue with a firm hand.
"The government circular is clear". But if at all the Manch leaders go
ahead with their plans, then we will have to enforce law and order." But
the DSP's assertion has not prevented BJP Navsari district chief Mafatlal
Purohit from proceeding to Ahmedabad for working out the rally
arrangements. When The Times of India tried to contact him on his mobile,
he refused to discuss the rally 'Aavi badhi vato phone par ra thay' (all
these things cannot be discussed on telephone). Mr. Purohit had recently
declared that the rally would be taken out, come what may. On the same
lines, South Gujarat Bajrang Dal chief Harish Surti asserts the question of
changing the programmejust did not arise. "We will give a warm and rousing
reception to Jagatguru Shankaracharya, just as the Christians welcomed Pope
John Paul II in Delhi recently. If the Pope can be welcome on Diwali day
our leaders can also be welcomed on Christmas day," he says. He reveals the
Sangh Parivar top brass is giving the final shape to the rally, in
Ahmedabad. The only solace this time around is that the law and order
machinery, which was caught napping the last Christmas day, seems better
prepared to meet any eventuality this time around. the end.
-------------------
# 5
Yahoo! Asia - News Asia
Wednesday, December 8 9:23 AM SGT

TENS OF THOUSANDS OF BENGALI MIGRANTS FACE BLEAK FUTURE IN PAKISTAN

KARACHI, Dec 8 (AFP) - Abdul Razzaq bribed border guards in Bangladesh and
India to cross into Pakistan 15 years ago but now worries over the new
military regime's plan to declare some two million migrants as aliens.

"If I am caught, who will feed my wife and son?" said Razzaq, 30, on the
eve of the World Day for Migrants.

Razzaq is among tens of thousands of Bangladeshis living in this port
city. They crossed into the Thar and Cholistan deserts in southern
Pakistan from India after paying money to middlemen.

Human rights activist Zia Awan says the agents grease palms at check
posts, first in Bangladesh to enter India and then in the Indian state of
Rajasthan to cross into Pakistan.

Thousands more arrive via the divided state of Punjab, he said.

Bengali settlers say the middlemen charge up to 10,000 rupees (200
dollars) each while agents in Pakistan help arrange passports and identity
cards.

Interior Minister Moeenuddin Haider last week said the government of
military ruler General Pervez Musharraf was working on a law covering more
than two million immigrants in Pakistan.

Illegal immigrants would be issued alien registration work permits which
would be vaild for three years and renewable in some cases, Haider said.

"On expiry of the permit, the immigrant will have to leave the country,"
he added.

=46oreign residents include more than 1.6 million Bengalis, 300,000 Afghans=
,
200,000 Burmese, Iranians, Sri Lankans, Filipinos as well as people from
Central Asian republics.

The men work in garment factories, in carpet-making, fisheries and
restaurants while women are engaged as domestic servants.

Officials say at least 800,000 foreigners entered Pakistan illegally
between 1989 and 1993.

They suspect many are engaged in crime in this violence-prone city.

"There are Bengali gangs who run prostitution dens and Afghan groups
involved in arms and drug smuggling. They are a headache," said Hussain
Asghar, a senior Karachi police official.

But Bengalis complain of police high-handedness.

"I pay the police from my meagre income to avoid arrest, the employers
also exploit our weakness and treat us like slaves," said Razzaq, who is
planning to leave Pakistan.

"People all over the world are talking today about the rights of migrants.
But we are treated here like second rate citizens," said Sualeh Zahoor,
chief of the Bengali Charitable Association.

In a Bengali settlement here, the signboards are in Bengali and shops,
decorated with posters of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Hasina Wajed and
opposition leader Khaleda Zia, sell audio and video cassettes of Bengali
music.

The community also runs its own daily Qaumi Bandhan (national unity).

"We have no objection if criminal elements are thrown out, but those who
have not committed any crime have the right to live here," said Dhana
Mian, adding there were many Bengalis who opted for Pakistan after the
creation of Bangladesh in its eastern wing in 1971.

=46or them the solution lies in gaining Pakistani citizenship, he said.

"What about the children born here?" he said.

"We are accepted neither by Pakistani nor by Bangladesh," he said.

Another Bengali, Ahmed Kabir, prefers to stay in Pakistan. "Maybe the
government will not deport such a large number of Bengalis," he said
hopefully.
-----------------------
#6.
INDIA PAK ARMS RACE AND MILITARISATION WATCH #5
9 Dec, 1999

[1.]
AFP
Wednesday, December 8 8:43 PM SGT
New Delhi.

Kashmir battle cost India 461 million dollars [Indian] Defence Minister
George Fernandes said Thursday.
--------------------
[2.]
The Hindustan Times
8 Dec. 1999
Weekly: India to purchase weapons in a big way

Washington, December 7 (Agencies) India has decided to make major
off-the-shelf purchases of modern weapons in the wake of the Kargil war, a
leading defence weekly reported.

"Defense news" quoting a senior Indian Defence Ministry official said, the
armed forces would buy state-of-art weapons, submarines and planes to the
tune of 15 billion us dollars in the coming days.

The purchases are expected to include 35 su-30 aircraft, 65 advanced jet
trainers, 25 air defence radar systems, 300 self-propelled guns, infantry
systems, two submarines and four surveillance planes, the weekly said. The
official said Indian defence factories were far behind in development and
production of next generation weaponry.
--------------

[3.]
The Hindu
8 Dec. 1999

India, Russia sign pact

MOSCOW, DEC. 7. India and Russia have signed a 10-year protocol providing
for joint production and development of a whole range of military and
civilian aircraft in India.

The protocol, which includes production of SU-30MKI fighter bombers and
MiG-29K multi-role jets, was signed yesterday, sources in the Indian
embassy here said.
- PTI
---------------
[4.]
Jane's Defence Weekly
1 December 1999

INTERVIEW - THE JANE'S INTERVIEW
Nikolai Novichkov JDW Correspondent

Rosvoorouzhenie is planning to sign a number of major defence contracts
before year-end, says Alexey Ogarev, Director General of the Russian state
arms-exporting company.

"We have made [our] marketing strategy more focused"

"In the last three months, we have made Rosvoorouzhenie's marketing
strategy more focused. From last year's index of $2 billion, our export
volume has increased considerably and by the end of the year we expect to
achieve sales of more than $2.5 billion."

"Our order portfolio will also grow. We have orders up to the year 2005
that will result in about $9 billion of sales. About half of these are
aircraft and helicopters, the rest are distributed between land forces,
air defence forces and navies." [=8A] " Russia 's position in China, India =
,
Vietnam and a number of other countries has always been strong. However,
the market is fast moving and it is therefore hard to say which specific
market is traditionally ours. [=8A] Rosvoorouzhenie is establishing
aircraft maintenance and repair enterprises outside Russia in an attempt
"to build up our position in this market", says Ogarev. "The volume of work
in this field planned for 1999 is estimated at $429 million. For example,
in India we plan to carry out maintenance work on the Indian Air Force
Antonov An-32 , Mikoyan MiG -27, MiG-29, Sukhoi Su-30MKI aircraft, RD-33
engines, Mil Mi-17 helicopters and their engines.

"We will establish a facility in China, specialising in the production of
spares and repair of AL-31A engines, which will power Sukhoi Su-27
fighters. In Ethiopia, a centre is being organised to provide repair of
Mikoyan MiG-21bis, MiG-23 fighters and their engines."

"Over the last five years, Rosvoorouzhenie has signed a number of
agreements on military-technical co-operation with a variety of countries,
including Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Singapore. Lately,
the company has increased its contacts with the Philippines and Australia,
both of which have expressed interest in Russian-made aircraft and air
defence systems." [=8A]
-Nikolai Novichkov JDW Correspondent

ALEXEY OGAREV - DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE RUSSIAN ARMS-EXPORTING
COMPANY, ROSVOOROUZHENIE

Photograph: ALEXEY OGAREV - DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE RUSSIAN
ARMS-EXPORTING COMPANY, ROSVOOROUZHENIE; PA.
Copyright Jane's Information Group Limited 1999
-----------------
[5.]
The Moscow Times
16 November 1999
Page 17

Russia to Earn Billions as India Boosts Its Reach
Simon Saradzhyan

Under a protocol signed earlier this month in New Delhi, Russia has agreed
to sell a range of sub-strategic weapons systems to India. If the protocol
is adhered to, it would substantially boost India 's capability to control
the Indian Ocean.

The deals could earn Russia as much as dollars 4 billion over the next
three years, said Konstantin Makienko, deputy head of the Centre for
Analysis of Strategic Technologies. Some dollars 1.5 billion of that would
come from the planned sale of 60 carrier-capable MiG-29Ks, with a further
dollars 1.5 billion from the sale of a production license for Su-30MKI
multipurpose fighter planes, he said. The remaining dollars 1 billion
would come from a deal to sell some 90 T-90 tanks to India and for the
production license to cover the Indian manufacture of another 210 of these
battle tanks.

There are several other deals in the pipeline, but those three are the
closest to completion, he said.

In addition to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party government's stronger
nationalistic bent, India 's appetite for Russian military hardware is
apparently being driven by both local instability and global changes to
the balance of power. India 's desire to soup up its air power and its
ground forces could be put down to nervousness about recent developments
in its neighbor and sometimes-adversary, Pakistan-where an October coup
installed a military government. However, other weapons sales being
discussed with Moscow look to be more aimed at addressing concerns
regarding U.S. hegemony.

And India , with a dollars 10-billion-a-year defense budget, can afford to
expand its armed forces.

Deep Waters
In particular, India is looking to acquire both long-range bombers and an
aircraft carrier to attack enemy aircraft carrier groups in blue water,
well before enemy forces could pose a threat to the Indian mainland.

The protocol provides for the leasing of A-50 airborne early warning radar
systems and Tu-22M-3 Backfire long-range bombers to India , said an aide
to Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov, who led the Russian delegation to
India. The aide, who declined to be identified, said India will be able to
buy out these aircraft once the lease expires.

"The conflict in Kosovo has proved that U.S. formations can easily launch
more than 100 cruise missiles and no country can afford sufficient air
defense systems to repel such a massive attack. Long-range systems, such
as the Tu-22M-3, can attack such formations before they attack," Makienko
said.

The bomber has a maximum range of 2,410 kilometers if flying at subsonic
speeds and carrying a 12-ton payload of bombs and missiles. It can carry
five 5.9-ton Kh-22MA air-to-ground missiles, which have a range of up to
500 kilometers. The aircraft can also carry up to 10 short-range
air-to-ground missiles as well as both nuclear and conventional bombs with
a total weight of 24 tons.

The Indian military could also upgrade the bombers to extend their range
to 5,000 kilometers- sufficient to allow India to reach targets in the
United States or Europe, should it so desire-with mid-air refueling. The
START-1 treaty bars Russia from extending the range of these bombers.

Both Iran and China have already tried to buy these planes from Russia ,
but the talks fell through due to "political reasons," according to the
Combat Planes of the Russian Air Force reference book, published by the
Russian air force's Aviatsia i Kosmonavtika magazine in August this year.

As for the A-50, this early warning aircraft can operate as far as 1,000
kilometers away from its base for four hours. It can detect fighters
within a range of 230 kilometers, surface vessels within 400 kilometers
and ballistic missile launches within 1,000 kilometers, according to an
A-50 pamphlet released by the Moscow Scientific Research Institute of
Instrument Engineering.

India will probably lease some 10 Backfire bombers and at least two A-50
early warning systems, Makienko said.

But perhaps the most significant boost to India 's long-range defense
capacity could be the tentative agreement reached by Klebanov and his
Indian counterparts in which Russia is willing to give India its
Kiev-class aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov.

Russia would give away the carrier, which it has no money to maintain, to
act as a sweetener for a deal to sell the 60 MiG-29Ks.

The Admiral Gorshkov, which is currently gathering rust in Sevepodvinsk,
would be shipped to India free of charge, provided New Delhi agrees to pay
for the cost of overhauling the carrier and then commits to buying the
MiG-29K fighters, Klebanov's aide said.

The Gorshkov would be overhauled to operate up to 30 MiG-29K's and six
rotary wing aircraft, including Ka-31 airborne early warning, Ka-28
anti-submarine warfare and Ka-27PS search and rescue helicopters.

Another 30 MiG-29Ks would be bought to be deployed at a coastal air force
base, acting as a reserve for when the carrier-based fighters need repairs
and maintenance. The Admiral Gorshkov would supplement the Indian navy's
only existing carrier, the smaller and less capable INS Viraat.

The MiG-29K offers substantially greater range than the basic MiG-29 and
can carry medium- and short-range air-to-air missiles, and anti-ship
missiles.

Close Cover
In addition to boosting its control over the Indian Ocean through the
Backfire bombers and the Admiral Gorshkov, the Russian-Indian protocol
also gives New Delhi the chance to "cover" arch-rival Pakistan with
Su-30MKI multipurpose fighters, Makienko said.

Klebanov has agreed with Indian government officials that Russia will sell
India a production license for these advanced, air-superiority jets before
the end of this year.

The Su-30MKI has a range of 5,200 kilometers with one in-flight refueling
and can carry a payload of up to eight tons, including air-to-air
missiles, air-to-surface missiles and guided bombs.

Also being lined up for agreement before year's end is a deal to sell T-90
tanks to India. Meanwhile, Klebanov has also discussed issuing India with
production licenses for missile and air-defense systems in India ,
including the S-300, and for the Russian-designed Kilo-and Amur-class
diesel submarines, the deputy prime minister's aide said.

Both Makienko and Alexander Pikayev, a military analyst with the Moscow
Carnegie Center, said Russia should not agree to sell the license for the
production of the Amur-class submarines before India agrees to buy at
least some of these advanced vessels.

"It would be reasonable to have something procured at our shipyards, which
are not exactly prospering at the moment, before selling the technology,"
Makienko said.

Neither is a license for production of S-300 air-defense systems likely to
be sold until India buys some of these advanced systems, he added.

Of those deals that the Russian delegation have reached preliminary
agreements upon, only the sale of the Su-30MKI production license and the
lease of A-50 and Tu-22 aircraft, as well as the sale of MiG-29K fighters
and T-90 tanks, will occur soon, Makienko said.
Copyright (C) 1999 IM Independent Press Ltd

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'India Pak Arms Race & Militarisation Watch' (IPARMW)
is a joint initiative of South Asia Citizens Web and
South Asians Against Nukes
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SOUTH ASIA CITIZENS WEB DISPATCH is an informal, independent &
non-profit citizens wire service run by South Asia Citizens Web
(http://www.mnet.fr/aiindex) since1996.