[sacw] SACW #2 (06 January. 02)

[Harsh Kapoor]

South Asia Citizens Wire - Dispatch #2 | 6 January 2002

------------------------------------------
#1. The cost of war (C. Rammanohar Reddy)
#2. India's 'Amen Corner' (Justin Raimondo)
#3. O what a lovely war! (Pamela Philipose)
#4. Amartya Sen decries `sectarian outlook' to education
#5. Kashmir is to our leaders what Osama was to the Taliban. (Dr=20
Farrukh Saleem)
#6. India: Invitation to screening of Vijay Singh's Film (Delhi, 18 Jan)

________________________

#1.

The Hindu
Saturday, Jan 05, 2002
The cost of war
By C. Rammanohar Reddy

A war causes colossal human suffering... In all this, the `economic'=20
costs seem trifling. But there is a huge cost, both short and long=20
term.

CITIZENS ARE not supposed to question their governments in times of=20
war. This ``truth'' has been rephrased in recent weeks by senior=20
members of the Union Cabinet who make comparisons between the U.S.=20
media's silence about that country's actions after September 11 and=20
the noisy reaction at home to the Government's plans to deal with the=20
terrorism of December 13. However, those who make policy are=20
unnecessarily worried. By and large, there is, unfortunately, public=20
acquiescence to even the most extreme of plans of the Government - a=20
war with Pakistan.

But question the Government we must, because there can be no=20
guarantee that the brinkmanship which the two Governments are now=20
indulging in will remain under control. It cannot be otherwise when=20
one day the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, speaks the=20
reasonable language of diplomacy and yet the next day raises the=20
prospect of the ultimate spectre by publicly saying, ``Whatever=20
weapon is available will be used, no matter how it wounds the enemy''.

The impact of a war on the economy cannot be the main criterion to=20
guide a Government's final decision. The human, social and political=20
costs of a war are always much more widespread and of a qualitatively=20
more serious nature. But there is a huge cost that any economy will=20
have to bear during and after a conflict. So when the Union Finance=20
Minister, Yashwant Sinha, says a war will have no economic impact or=20
when senior officials claim it will cost nothing because stocks of=20
armaments and ammunition have already been accumulated it is=20
irresponsibility of the highest order.

The implications of a war, however brief it may turn out to be, on=20
two of the world's poorest economies should be self-evident. For=20
India, first, there is the financial burden on the Central Government=20
which has to meet the direct costs of the conflict. Second, there is=20
the cost of displacement and disruption in the areas where the=20
conflict will take place - both are likely to be considerable. And,=20
third, there are the medium and even long- term costs the economy=20
will experience in the form of lower economic growth. As against this=20
the only benefit - if there can be such a thing in war - is that=20
presumed to flow from better use of unutilised capacities in the=20
economy.

Precise figures in rupees and paise cannot be placed on the costs of=20
war. But the past wars provide enough indications of the colossal=20
cost that awaits us if we are to embark on a war with Pakistan. Our=20
neighbour will experience much the larger difficulties, but ours are=20
not going to be negligible. One thing is certain. It will be a short=20
conflict and not the least because we can expect the major powers to=20
intervene and put an end to the military adventure. Any war will go=20
on only as long as the inventories of ammunition and spares last in=20
both countries, for whatever the claims about self-sufficiency in=20
defence even India is still heavily dependent on imports to keep the=20
war machine going.

The immediate and direct costs to the Government will be what it will=20
have to incur on consumption of inventories of missiles and=20
ammunition, on additional inputs such as fuel for the Air Force=20
sorties, the costs of destruction of armaments and the spending on=20
deployment. Inventories are replenished after a conflict and the=20
additional expenditure after the Kargil war of 1999 gives an idea of=20
how much even a contained and short war could cost at the bare=20
minimum.

Defence expenditure in 1998-99 was Rs. 39,897 crores. During the year=20
of the Kargil conflict (1999-2000) it jumped by 18 per cent to Rs.=20
47,071 crores. Some of the replenishment costs would have been=20
incurred in the next financial year as well, defence outlay increased=20
further by 16 per cent to Rs. 54,461 crores in 2000-01. That was a=20
total of Rs. 14,564 crores or a 36 per cent growth over two years.=20
Not all of this additional spending can be attributed to Kargil since=20
an increase in defence expenditure had been planned even before the=20
mountain war of 1999. Still, if the contained Kargil conflict cost=20
about Rs. 10,000 crores one should expect a broader India-Pakistan=20
war to cost many times - four to five times? - this amount. Such=20
spending on a war will mean less Government investment in the=20
infrastructure and social sectors. This, besides having a negative=20
effect on its own account, will also have a ripple effect in the form=20
of lower private investment.

A war also results in the destruction of civilian infrastructure,=20
disruption of local economies and a dislocation of production and=20
transport elsewhere in the economy. There is also the possibility of=20
a spurt in inflation if shortages arise from dislocation. The overall=20
outcome is a slowing down of economic growth. The economist Jean=20
Dreze in a study of militarism, development and democracy points out=20
that of the six countries which experienced an economic contraction=20
at double-digit rates in 1990-97, five had gone through wars or civil=20
wars in that time. The Indian experience with past wars is striking.=20
In 1962-63 (the year of the war with China), the economy grew by only=20
2 per cent; in 1965-66 (war with Pakistan) growth was a negative 3.7=20
per cent and in 1971-72 (the Bangladesh war) it was as little as 0.9=20
per cent. All three years witnessed a deceleration and it took a=20
couple of years before the economy recovered. Again, this was not=20
always the fallout of the conflicts. In 1965, for instance, there was=20
a severe nationwide drought. Yet, it is hard to deny that the three=20
wars of the 1960s and 1970s must have contributed substantially to=20
the deceleration in GDP growth. The impact of the Kargil war is more=20
ambiguous. The economy grew at the same pace in 1999-2000 as the year=20
before - a healthy 6.5 per cent. But that was an unusual year. The=20
Fifth Pay Commission bonanza led to a rapid growth in the service=20
sector and that also gave a temporary boost to the industry. After=20
that it has been downhill all the way.

There is yet this idea that a war can be good for an economy. World=20
War II was indeed good for the U.S., which was then just emerging=20
from the 1930s Depression. But the economic effect of a mass=20
mobilisation of people and machines in the U.S. over four years, on=20
the scale witnessed in World War II and far from the theatre of=20
conflict is very different from the effect of an India-Pakistan war.=20
A burst of expenditure here on munitions, fuel and transport, and=20
large-scale imports from the global arms market is not going to boost=20
domestic demand for Indian industry.

The short and simple truth is that a war will be bad for the Indian=20
economy. A war cannot also come at a worse time. The economy is in a=20
slump. Even a short conflict will push it deeper into a quagmire. All=20
these arguments are well-known. If yet they have to be elaborated, it=20
is because powerful voices are blinded by the thirst for revenge.

A war causes colossal human suffering - to the men in uniform, to the=20
civilians who happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, and,=20
to their families and friends. It also destroys homes and places of=20
work. After the immediate suffering comes the lifelong damage to mind=20
and body. In all this, the ``economic'' costs seem trifling. But=20
there is a huge cost, both short and long-term. On that there cannot=20
be any doubt.
_____

#2.

antiwar.com | January 4, 2002

INDIA'S 'AMEN CORNER'
Why is Andrew Sullivan whitewashing the persecution of India's Christians?
by Justin Raimondo

It's amazing, really, when you think about it: no sooner had the=20
Pakistan-India conflict reared up as a consequence of America's "new=20
war," then Israel's amen corner in the US had already taken up the=20
cudgels on New Delhi's behalf. Gee, these guys are fast. That=20
always-reliable barometer of elite opinion, Andrew Sullivan=20
[http://www.andrewsullivan.com/] , succinctly summarized the party=20
line in a weblog item entitled "Israel and India":

"After September 11 and the president's speech to Congress in which=20
he laid out a clear doctrine of zero tolerance for terrorism, it=20
seems to me our foreign policy is clear. Both Israel and India - at=20
either ends of the Islamic Middle East - must be unequivocally=20
supported in their struggles against Islamo-fascism. Both are=20
democracies; both allow freedom of religion; both have enemies who=20
are friendly with the perpetrators of the WTC massacre."

IS HE KIDDING?
Whoa! Hold it, dude - freedom of religion? Sullivan, the big=20
Catholic, surely must know about the widespread persecution of=20
Christians, particularly Catholics, since the Hindu nationalists came=20
to power in 1996. That year, the United Christian Forum for Human=20
Rights documented over 120 attacks on Christians by Hindu-fascists.

The wave of murders, church-burnings, and other outrages has=20
increased exponentially ever since Interior Minister L. K. Advani, a=20
Hindu hardliner, took his "chariot journey" from a Hindu temple in=20
Gujarat province to Ayodhya, alleged to be the birthplace of the=20
Hindu deity Rama. Like Mussolini's march on Rome, Advani's journey=20
was the signal for the beginning of a new era in the politics of the=20
subcontinent, marking the rise of militant Hindu-fascism as the=20
dominant political force. The Hindu fundamentalist Bharatiya Janatha=20
Party (BJP) quickly grew from a fringe group, with 2 seats in=20
Parliament, to the biggest party on the Indian scene. Advani's march=20
on Ayodhya culminated in the demolition of a mosque there, and=20
coincided with the launching of a program dedicated to "saffronizing"=20
Indian society.

UNHOLY SACRIFICE
You might think that the term "Hindu-fascism" is as much an=20
overstatement as its antipode, "Islamo-fascism," which we have heard=20
so much about lately from Sullivan, Christopher Hitchens, and the=20
pro-war crowd. Yet what else are we to make of the BJP's official=20
slogan, "One Nation, One People, One Culture" - eerily similar to=20
that of the German Nazis? In this context, should we be surprised by=20
the news that a Hindu priest recently sacrificed an 8-year-old boy to=20
the god Shiva, known as "the Destroyer," by chopping off his head?

INDIA'S WAR ON CHRISTIANITY
The US State Department's 1999 human rights report slammed New Delhi=20
for encouraging "increasing societal violence against Christians.''=20
The report also singled out the BJP and allied Hindu-fascist groups=20
for instigating mob attacks on priests, missionaries, and Christian=20
pilgrims. And things aren't getting any better: the recent=20
declaration by Bajrang Dal, a Hindu group associated with the BJP,=20
announced that "Christians [are] now bigger enemies than Muslims."=20
Dharmendra Sharma, the Bajrang Dal's fuehrer, "declared that his=20
organization was ready to fight wherever church institutions were=20
active," according to the Times of India. "We are prepared to use=20
violence," said Mr. Sharma. "There is no limit."

The Indian government itself acknowledges the problem, although not=20
it's severity - indeed, the BJP and its allies in the governing=20
coalition downplay the increasingly numerous attacks, although that=20
is getting harder to do. According to Vijayesha Lal, who monitors=20
human rights abuses against Christians in India:

"In some areas, it's out in the open - sometimes it's very subtle.=20
Persecution in India is at different levels. Sometimes, it's direct=20
persecution, mob violence, breaking of churches, burning of Bibles,=20
physical violence, even murders. On the other hand there is=20
persecution by the official machinery. Using laws, regulations that=20
are against Christians."

APOLOGIST FOR EVIL
Violence and rhetorical hate directed at Christians, and against=20
Catholics in particular, is on the upswing in India: oddly, this=20
doesn't seem to bother Sullivan, who only needs to know that India,=20
like Israel, "must be unequivocally supported." If this was a wave of=20
gay-bashing, the openly gay Sullivan - who manages to find a gay=20
rights angle in practically everything, even the present war - might=20
find it harder to overlook. The Indians are doing everything but=20
nailing priests to crosses, and yet the supposedly Catholic Sullivan=20
has the gall to praise them for "allowing" religious freedom. Not=20
since the days of Walter Duranty, the infamous pro-Communist New York=20
Times journalist who reported that Stalin's gulag was a workers'=20
paradise, has such intellectual dishonesty flaunted itself so boldly.

THE ISRAEL CONNECTION
But the real question is: why the blatant hypocrisy? The answer is=20
contained in the rest of Sullivan's screed:

"To play footsie with either country now, to do anything but provide=20
extremely clear public support, would deeply undermine the integrity=20
of our own struggle against this destabilizing evil. I see no=20
evidence that the administration has done anything but back both=20
countries - but for a while there, I had real worries that the same=20
kind of moral equivalence that we falsely ascribe to Israel and the=20
PLOHamasHizbollah was one we were beginning to apply to India and=20
Pakistani-sponsored terrorist groups. I'm with India on this one, and=20
am glad they pushed this principle to the brink of warfare to get=20
their message across."

A LIAR'S STYLE
Liars and frauds are always betrayed by their style, which invariably=20
gives them away, and Sullivan demonstrates that principle here in=20
spades. "PLOHamasHizbollah" - that he runs all these separate words=20
together should give the perceptive reader a clue that important=20
lines are being deliberately blurred. Particularly invidious is=20
Sullivan's equation of Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf with the=20
PLO and Palestinian groups like Hamas and Hizbollah.

Unlike Arafat, Musharraf is a head of state, one who has cooperated=20
fully with Washington in the hope that this would be, in his phrase,=20
a war that is "short and sweet." This was done, and is still being=20
done, at considerable risk of destabilizing Musharraf's own=20
precarious position. Furthermore, Musharraf came to power with covert=20
US support, in order to prevent Pakistan from sliding into chaos and=20
creating the conditions for the triumph of a Taliban-like regime. So=20
Sullivan is not merely lying, here, but standing the truth on its=20
head.

THE AXIS POWERS
Aside from the rhetorical sleight-of-hand Sullivan tries to pull off=20
here, what's interesting is that his pairing of India with Israel is=20
no mere rhetorical flourish. Jane's Defense Weekly has reported some=20
details of the Indo-Israeli axis, including cooperation on a wide=20
range of projects: the erection of electronic fencing around the=20
disputed Kashmir region, the provision of nuclear-armed submarines=20
with advanced Barak missiles. Israel's recent sale of an Israeli=20
Phalcon airborne warning and control system (AWACS) to India is an=20
important addition to the arsenal of Hindu-fascism, and not only=20
militarily.

The AWACS deal formalizes an increasingly intimate Indo-Israeli=20
military and economic alliance, one that has lately grown to include=20
Taiwan. As I pointed out in my New Year's column, India and Israel=20
have a lot in common: not only a mutual hatred of Islam, but also an=20
expressed willingness to use nuclear weapons.

SOME KIND OF DUMMY
The stilted tone of Sullivan's pro-India pronouncement, which bears=20
all the earmarks of the worst sort of political writing, is so much=20
unlike his other writing that it stands out as oddly inexplicable.=20
Sullivan, a big fan of George Orwell, is surely aware of Orwell's=20
classic essay on "Politics and the English Language," in which the=20
author of 1984 describes the degeneration of political writing in his=20
day:

"In our time it is broadly true that political writing is bad=20
writing. Where it is not true, it will generally be found that the=20
writer is some kind of rebel, expressing his private opinions and not=20
a 'party line.'

"Orthodoxy, of whatever color, seems to demand a lifeless, imitative=20
style. The political dialects =8A are all alike in that one almost=20
never finds in them a fresh, vivid, homemade turn of speech. When one=20
watches some tired hack on the platform mechanically repeating the=20
familiar phrases - bestial atrocities, iron heel, bloodstained=20
tyranny, free peoples of the world, stand shoulder to shoulder - one=20
often has a curious feeling that one is not watching a live human=20
being but some kind of dummy."

'AMEN, BROTHER!'
So the imposition of a "party line" destroys what makes a writer=20
convincing: it puts blinders on someone whose job it is to see and=20
describe what he is seeing. But what "party" are we talking about=20
here? Surely not the Democrats or Republicans, nor any third party=20
with a place on the ballot, but one, rather, that wields a powerful=20
and often decisive influence in both major parties: the Israel lobby,=20
or, as Pat Buchanan unforgettably dubbed it, Israel's "amen corner"=20
in the US. Sullivan makes sure he always shouts "Amen!" the loudest.=20
In his view, Israel can do no wrong.

Indeed, along with the Christian fundamentalists whom he despises,=20
that nation's government has no more loyal advocate than Sullivan: he=20
even beats out Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell in his willingness to=20
suspend all critical thinking when it comes to Israel. That is why=20
his writings on the subject are so dully unconvincing, and so unlike=20
his usually thoughtful style. It's also why he is perfectly willing=20
to overlook the ongoing persecution of his Catholic and Christian=20
brothers at India's hands - and even to praise them for their alleged=20
religious tolerance!

SPARE ME THE EMAILS
The example of Andrew Sullivan will, I hope, shut up the crazed=20
anti-Semites who continually send emails berating me for not=20
specifically denouncing a "Jewish conspiracy." According to their=20
perfervid epiphanies - typed, it seems, in nearly all CAPITAL LETTERS=20
and cluttered! with! exclamation! points! - Jews control the media,=20
and indeed are the media. As a British gay Catholic with an=20
upper-crusty accent, Sullivan is about as far from being an Elder of=20
Zion as you can get, and yet his is an influential voice which, added=20
to the others, amounts to a sort of chorus. When Israel's government=20
announces a new policy initiative, they all shout "Amen, brother!"=20
without a thought as to what effect it will have on their own country.

THE LETTER 'I'
As to precisely which country the cosmopolitan Sullivan owes his real=20
loyalties - he's an expatriate Brit who's now taken up residence in=20
America - I wouldn't venture a guess. But from his comments not only=20
in this instance but consistently down through the years, I would say=20
that the first letter quite possibly begins with an 'I' - and I don't=20
mean India.

TUNKU'S TWO CENTS
It's nice, of course, when one's extraterritorial loyalties coincide,=20
and so no one is exactly surprised that one Tunku Varadarajan, of the=20
Wall Street Journal, should aver that, while Pakistan's alliance with=20
the US is "mercurial," India, on the other hand, is a "truer kind of=20
ally, one whose support for any war on Islamic terror is not=20
opportunistic, but instinctive and philosophical." This, of course,=20
is the same "philosophy" that drives howling mobs of Hindus to wreck=20
Christian churches, burn mosques, and purge the land of anyone or=20
anything that has not been sufficiently "saffronized." As India's=20
rulers hold a nuclear sword of Damocles over Pakistan, their missiles=20
within range of where thousands of US troops are stationed, fellow=20
travelers of Hindu-fascism are to be found in the highest circles of=20
elite opinion - an Amen Corner whose motives and methods are=20
dishonest, and downright sinister.

FIFTH COLUMNISTS
The irony is that the activities of this Indo-Israeli alliance and=20
their US fifth column conflict with announced US war aims, forcing=20
Pakistan to withdraw troops from the Afghan border in order to meet=20
the threat from India's massive troop mobilization. It's funny, but=20
these same people - Sullivan and Varadarajan - are always so quick to=20
point out how critics of US policy are "undermining the war effort,"=20
yet in this case they are the ones subverting a decisive American=20
victory. But, then again, if Osama slips through the US-Pakistani net=20
the war will not only continue indefinitely but will immediately=20
escalate - which is just what the Amen Corner wants. For that would=20
pit the US and Israel, allied with India, in a war against the entire=20
Middle East, a conflagration in which we can only lose - and only our=20
ostensible "allies" have anything to gain.

[...].
Antiwar.com
520 S. Murphy Avenue, #202
Sunnyvale, CA 94086

_____

#3.

Indian Express
Sunday, January 06, 2002
Straight Face

O what a lovely war!

Pamela Philipose

ALTHOUGH war may not have actually broken out, there is plenty of=20
action in evidence thanks to the rapid fire performances of our=20
special battalions armed to the teeth - quite literally so - as they=20
display their amazing military capabilities through words, words and=20
more words.

The buff-coats who make up these squads may not have been put through=20
the paces at Khadakvasla and Dehra Dun, neither do they sport=20
epaulettes and uniforms, but that does not deter them in the least=20
from being both bark- and battle-ready.

So let's do a quick review of our brave men-out-of-uniform who never=20
hesitate, even for a teeny-tiny moment, to get others to lay down=20
their lives for the country.

The first, in my personal roll of honour, is our very dependable=20
squad of NRIs or Non Resident Incendiaries, trained in the intricate=20
weaponry of cyber-rattling. In rather well-feathered fox-holes some=20
10,000 km northwest of the Poonch sector (as the Boeing 747 flies),=20
they keep a gimlet eye on the enemy and generally prepare themselves=20
to wage relentless battle through their Compaq Pentium-4 missile=20
delivery systems, especially designed to shoot e-mails across the=20
world with the speed of light.

''National honour demands that we teach the ENEMY a lesson it will=20
never forget. So BOMB the bases,'' they fire away on their laptops,=20
''If we have to pay the ULTIMATE PRICE and engage in NUCLEAR WARFARE,=20
so be it.'' Such urgent instructions to countrymen and women left=20
behind in Bharat Mata are inevitably followed by the injunction in=20
bold lettering ''LET US NOT BE COWARDS''.

Good, soul-stirring stuff, just the thing we need here as we go about=20
our little lives. The only problem though is that when our Non=20
Resident Incendiaries speak of ''our country'' and ''our national=20
honour'', one is never quite sure which country they really mean,=20
seeing that most of them have long swapped the Tricolour for the Star=20
Spangled Banner.

Then there is the other courageous lot who brave television lights,=20
and selflessly give of their time and energy, night after night,=20
screaming for the enemy's blood. Although none of them has seen real=20
action, they usually have an excellent war record, never hesitating=20
for a moment to despatch the army to storm enemy lines the moment the=20
cameras roll. I call them the Prime Time Platoon and their secret=20
weapon is a glass of warm saline solution with which to gargle for 60=20
seconds once the night's exertions are over, in order to keep the old=20
vocal chords fitting fit for the next encounter in the studios.

The Bathetic Battalion come marching next. Don't be fooled by the=20
fact that this lot are mostly poets, or rather versifiers, whose=20
verse seems to get worse and worse by the day so that one is tempted=20
to term them ''worseifiers''. Yet they can, when the mood takes them=20
and the desire to catch the eye of Poet-Prime Minister Atal Bihari=20
Vajpayee overwhelms them, stiffen up the sinews, summon up the blood=20
and produce quite a blast. Secretly, they all imagine that they are=20
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and produce poetry to match.

So one among them says, ''Padosi to naag hai'' (our neighbour is a=20
snake) and the rest exclaim, ''Wah, wah'' in appreciation. Which=20
encourages the man to burst out, ''Padosi to naag hia, ise chandan na=20
chadao tum...''(our neighbour is a snake, let us not offer him sandal=20
wood). Read such verse aloud on a cold wintry night to the enemy=20
lines with the aid of foghorns, and the sheer velocity of its=20
mediocrity is guaranteed to frighten them into abject surrender.

Which brings us to our elite corps, the Trishul Troops, who simply=20
love a war, any war, even a nuclear one, as long as it wins them=20
Uttar Pradesh - on the presumption perhaps that if Ram doesn't work,=20
Radioactivity might.

You may have noticed something rather curious about this entire lot=20
who measure patriotism by the number of shells despatched across the=20
border. They are either old codgers who have no stake in the future,=20
or young codgers with great lateral mobility who are unlikely to be=20
hit by a loose nuke. But that is precisely what makes them so keen on=20
war.

_____

#4.

The Hindu
Saturday, Jan 05, 2002
Amartya Sen decries `sectarian outlook' to education
By Our Staff Reporter
KOLKATA, JAN. 4. The Nobel-Laureate and Master, Trinity College,=20
Cambridge, Amartya Sen, today denounced the Union Government's=20
reported move to impart religious values as part of primary=20
education. Chances were high that this move would impart a sectarian=20
attitude based on religion, he said.
Addressing the media after a two-day workshop on `Education, Equity=20
and Human Security', co-hosted by the UNICEF, Harvard University, the=20
Commission on Human Security and Pratichi Trust, Prof. Sen said=20
religious self-esteem, in practice, was often misdirected to a=20
sectarian outlook which might bring more harm than good.
On the Centre's move to change the educational content and=20
curriculum, he said ``there is a danger that some political groups=20
may manipulate the educational content and curriculum in schools for=20
subversive purposes. Openness of the curriculum and a secular and=20
inclusive approach that cultivates reasoning and scrutiny can be=20
central to the role of education to promote human security''.

Describing the lack of education and other social infrastructure as a=20
far greater threat to human security than ``terrorism'', he said the=20
number of people who had died of AIDS, malaria or tuberculosis across=20
the world on September 11, would far outstrip the number of=20
casualties in the World Trade Center crash.
On the tension between India and Pakistan, he said it was time the=20
Indian media came out of the clutches of Government propaganda and=20
promoted the existence and the role of the intelligentsia in Pakistan=20
who were no less critical of their own Government.
The Nobel laureate, Amartya Sen, addressing a press conference in=20
Kolkata on Friday.- Photo: Sushanta Patronobish

_____

#5

The News International
January 06, 2002
Dr Farrukh Saleem

Various dilemmas

Kashmir is to our leaders what Osama was to the Taliban. Rawalpindi=20
has always had a monopoly of sorts over our Kashmir dilemma, our=20
Afghan dilemma and the internal political cell. As a matter of fact,=20
they haven't done much else. Nine-Eleven hijacked their Afghan=20
policy. December 13 brought down the collective weight of Nato, the=20
planet's largest arms cartel, the EU along with the US and squeezed=20
whatever juice was left in the Lashkar and the Jaish. The big=20
question now is if the US can persuade us to change our ways on=20
Kashmir.

Here's a military mind, one that I respect, in action. I am told that=20
America's 'global war on terrorism' must have been planned out in=20
phases. In the initial phases, we have been made out to be a=20
coalition partner but absolutely nothing is ever shared with us. At=20
Mach 2, F-18 Hornets and F-14 Tomcats penetrate our air space at=20
will. Eighteen feet long Tomahawks cruise over us at 550 mph and we=20
are only given an hour's notice. What sort of a partnership is that?=20
Clearly, we are a partner who isn't trusted. They do need us for the=20
first few phases but a partner who hasn't been trusted is not meant=20
to remain a partner for long.

In terms of time, our investment into the Taliban is less than a=20
decade. With little or no revenue base of their own we must have=20
pumped tens of millions of dollars a year (telephones at Taliban=20
ministries had Pakistani area codes). The accumulated billion was=20
hurriedly written off as a consequence of one transatlantic=20
telephonic threat to our 'strategic assets'. Nothing less would have=20
been convincing enough.

Kashmir is different altogether. Our investment is five decades and a=20
good $35 billion (equivalent to our entire external debt). The=20
various lashkars have been a cheap, dispensable and a renewable=20
source. Under the new 'anti-terrorism' paradigm, the lashkars may no=20
longer be available.

In the meanwhile, the economic squeeze is on. The largest=20
mobilization of Pakistani forces in three decades, greater than=20
during the 1971 war, is costing us hundreds of crores a day. The=20
Indian Ocean is littered with war ships and our 'strategic oil=20
reserves' would last for no more than two weeks. The Federal Reserve,=20
America's Central Bank, has literally crippled the New York branches=20
of Habib Bank, National Bank of Pakistan, United Bank and Habib Bank=20
AG Zurich (the last has actually been the largest Hundi operator).=20
All cash transactions have been banned and the banks have been=20
restricted to personal banking, issuing of money orders and certified=20
checks.

Retailers who sell billions of dollars of apparel to Americans-Gap,=20
Eddie Bauer, Aeropastale, Levis Strauss, Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren,=20
American Eagle and Perry Ellis-use to procure $2 billion worth of=20
Pakistani textiles every year. According to the Pakistan Textile &=20
Apparel Group, there is a "64 percent reduction in orders for clothes=20
that would be made from December through February." According to the=20
Ministry of Commerce, 68,500 have already been laid off and 177=20
apparel manufacturers have locked up their front gates. This,=20
however, is only the beginning.

Over the immediate future, India will not be allowed to distract the=20
superpower at war in Afghanistan by starting out its own show (the=20
Afghan undertaking is on its last leg). American troops are deployed=20
at three Pakistani air-bases while the Americans control at least=20
one-third of our air-space. In the next phase, however, America will=20
take India on board to tame a particularly problematic ally. Bush=20
still needs Musharraf to take care of al-Qaeda runaways. Delhi, at=20
the same time, is trying to persuade Washington-with ample help from=20
Yunus Qanooni and General Fahim-that al-Qaeda's next home is going to=20
be Pakistan. Bush, for now, seems to have convinced Vajpayee to allow=20
Musharraf time to prove his sincerity.

The US Department of State appears to have isolated two explanations=20
behind the attack on the Indian parliament. The "first is that=20
Musharraf knew about plans for the attack and sanctioned it. The=20
second is that he neither knew of nor sanctioned the attack." Odds=20
are that "he neither knew of nor sanctioned the attack." For General=20
Powell, it means that his general in Islamabad is not in full=20
control. For Washington, the dilemma is that the next general may be=20
even less in control.

At the US Department of Defence the debate is on the next phase of=20
action. Unfortunately, Pakistan's name is coming up more than ever=20
before. That's where an implicit American endorsement to the Indian=20
threat of war comes into play. It's quite convenient for the US to=20
use the Indian lever to pressurize Musharraf to clean up.

For Vajpayee, the attack on the red sandstone parliament in-tandem=20
with the current American mood on terrorism provides an ideal,=20
unprecedented opportunity to try and settle his Kashmir dilemma. For=20
Benazir, the way out for Pakistan is to do with Kashmir what the US=20
and China have done with Taiwan-increase trade, continue investing=20
and put the Taiwan issue on the backburner.

Uncle Sam's present prescription for India is intense pressure but no=20
war. We also want to settle Kashmir. The problem is that our leaders=20
have never allowed a national debate on the word "settle". Our=20
leaders have indebted Pakistan and condemned at least two generations=20
of Pakistani Muslims to illiteracy and malnourishment promising them=20
that Kashmir will be settled to the satisfaction of Pakistan. All the=20
e-mails that I get from India and all the Indian newspapers that I=20
read tell me that the Indian leadership may be prepared to accept the=20
LoC as the permanent international boundary. Could there be a better=20
settlement?

Here's the real dilemma. If we listen to the Americans and agree to=20
resolve Kashmir through non-jihadi means then all that this country=20
needs is one-quarter of the current ISI to manage the internal=20
political cell and a small shalwar-kurta militia for internal=20
security duties (may be not right away but within the current=20
decade). If we don't listen to the 'warriors of terrorism' then we=20
have no idea what they'll make of us in the final phases of their=20
'war on terrorism'. Can the fear of the unknown make our commanders=20
write their own obituary?

_____

#6

INVITATION

Silhouette Films are pleased to invite you to a Habitat Film Club screening
of Vijay Singh's internationally- acclaimed film
JAYA GANGA
at
The Auditorium, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi
on
18th January 2002
at
7 p.m.
(Entry recommended through Gate No 3 Vardhman Marg)

There will be an interaction with the film's director Vijay Singh at 7.00
pm. Smriti Mishra, the film's lead actress, will also attend the showing.
This will be followed by a screening of the film.

Please come to the Convention Centre Desk at the India Habitat Centre where
you will be given an entry card for the showing.

Jaya Ganga is a twin love story set against the beautiful backdrop of the
river Ganges.An Indo-French co-production based on Vijay Singh's own novel
(Penguin 1990), Jaya Ganga has been shown at over thirty international fil=
m
festivals.

Jaya Ganga enjoys the record of having had the longest commercial run for a=
n
Indian film in the Paris cinemas, where it played for 49 consecutive weeks=
.
It has to date been shown in over 80 cities in the U.K..

The attached press excerpts might give an idea of how the film was received
by the international and the Indian press. For more details, please visit
the website <http://www.chez.com/jayaganga>www.chez.com/jayaganga

Silhouette Films Private Limited Silhouette=20
Films International Limited
New Delhi London
Tel: 011- 506 31 66 / 011- 506 5122 / 23
Email: <mailto:sedh@m...>sedh@m...

JAYA GANGA

INDIAN AND UK PRESS
Excerpts

"(Vijay Singh shows) a grip over the medium that's remarkable in a
directorial debut." The Times of India
"Jaya Ganga is a film with a soul. A soul that holds a difficult subject
together." The Outlook
"An ode to love and reincarnation" India Today
"One of those rare films where nobody makes a bad move." The Pioneer
"Vijay Singh excels as a director in Jaya Ganga... a must see film that is =
a
journey down the Indian heritage." The Asian Age
"A mesmerising film... One of the most authentic depictions of everyday
Indian magic ever screened." The Guardian Guide
"Elegant novella of a film... made with seriousness and a pleasing and
unaffected grace." Peter Bradshaw, The Guardian
"A gifted filmmaker introduces you to a new, intoxicating world."
JonathanRoss, BBC TV
"A magical and gorgeous-looking first feature..." The Daily Telegraph
"Never less than fascinating. Fresh, complex and quite charming." Peter
Preston, The Observer
"It's a mix of surrealism and realistic detail, tenderness and reality,
quiet wit and poetry." The Times
"A romantic sensibility you seldom see today and a feeling for the mysterie=
s
of India that fortunately don't preclude a decent sense of humour." Derek
Malcolm, Midweek
"Lavish and distinctive." Antonia Quirke, Independent on Sunday
"It looks like a dream..." Harpers & Queen
"A haunting experience that lingers long in the mind." Footloose
"Refreshingly different." What's on in London
"Magic realism with star crossed passion." Empire

FRENCH AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL PRESS

"A dreamy, beautifully-lensed tale where characters spring to life with
almost painful intensity." Variety, Hollywood
"When the holiest of the holy rivers encounters cinema, the result is sheer
magic." Alain Corneau
"Love and Ganges - a beautiful journey of cinema" Jean-Claude Carriere
"Magnificently photographed, made with a rhythm and structure of its own,
this film is a homage to India, the Ganges and the madness of love." Le
Monde
"A magnificent book of images." Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris
"We are ushered into the depths of an unknown world which is also our
own."Le Figaro, Paris
"Breathtaking imagery, just as the stunning Zehra (Smriti Mishra, the
courtesan)..." L'Express
"A portrait of India... Life, death, horror, beauty - in other words, sheer
poetry. Figaroscope, Paris
"Shunning cliches, mocking himself, Vijay Singh autographs a film where
dream and reality mix harmoniously." La Vie, Paris
"The long journey down the Ganges, with its colourful interludes and
mysterious encounters, is an enchantment, a poetic dream." Les Echos
"A fascinating travel film, dreamy and accessible." La Presse, Canada
"Wonderfully acted... with a sense of humour." Globe and Mail, Canada
"Poetic and magical." La Capital, Argentina

_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/

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