[sacw] South Asians Against Nukes Post | 21 July 00

Fri, 21 Jul 2000 17:51:04 +0200

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South Asians Against Nukes Post
21 July 2000
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#1. Pakistan to consider using nukes if attacked
#2. India: West Bengal MLAs crossparty lines on N-power plant
#3. IPARMW #18 (21 July 2000)
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#1.

Financial Times
20 July 2000

Pakistan to consider using nukes if attacked

By Adam Tanner - 20 Jul 2000 12:32GMT

BERLIN, July 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan would consider using nuclear weapons
first if attacked by conventional forces, its deputy foreign minister said
on Thursday.

There is no way Pakistan can hold out any assurance that it will not use
any nuclear weapons if its existence is threatened, said Inam ul Haque, the
highest-ranking Pakistani official to visit Germany since nuclear tests in
1998.

There is no such assurance on the part of India either, he said during a
breakfast briefing for journalists.

Pakistan carried out nuclear tests in May 1998 in response to similar
tests from arch-rival India, which drew worldwide criticism and sanctions.
India has said it is committed to a no-first nuclear use policy.

Haque added that NATO maintained a first-use threat to deter a Soviet
attack during the Cold War. At the time, NATO worried about the possibility
of an overwhelming conventional ground attack on western Europe.

Haque's remarks, at the start of a visit aiming at improving ties with
Germany, appeared to go further than Pakistan's nuclear policy of
responsibility and restraint.

Speaking to journalists before a meeting with his German counterpart
Wolfgang Ischinger, Haque defended Pakistan's development of nuclear
weapons.

India, we believe, is a hegemonic power, he said. Our nuclear programme
has been a response to our security threat perceptions....Nuclear weapons
are weapons of deterrence.

COUP LED TO FURTHER ISOLATION

Already isolated over its nuclear development programme, Pakistan drew
further international condemnation after army chief General Pervez
Musharraf ousted democratically elected prime minister Nawaz Sharif in a
bloodless coup last October.

Haque said the coup was a necessary reaction to what he called Sharif's
efforts to build a dictatorship in Pakistan, but added the military leaders
would restore democracy by 2002. In the meantime they needed outside
financial help, he said.

Major economic assistance to Pakistan has dried up, he said. The reserves
of the government are $1.5 billion. This is not a very large figure.

The European Union condemned the military coup in October and suspended a
new cooperation pact in protest.

We need to re-engage with the members of the European Union, both
individually and as the European Union, Haque said.

Germany has given $3.7 billion in direct aid to Pakistan since 1961, but
the assistance has stopped with the recent sanctions. Trade has also fallen
sharply in recent years.

It is possible that business do not feel too confident doing business in
Pakistan, Haque said.

Pakistan is also seeking to reschedule its debts again by next year, when
$3.5 to $4 billion is due to foreign creditors. It owes a total of $32
billion in external debts.

Pakistan would like a multi-year arrangement, Haque said. Discussions are
now going on.

Pakistan's inability to broaden its tax base and boost domestic fuel
prices had already caused the International Monetary Fund to put a hold on
a $1.56 billion loan programme before the October coup.

(c) 2000 Reuters Limited.

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#2.

THE STATESMAN (INDIA)

July 11, 2000

MLAs crossparty lines on N-power plant

CALCUTTA, July 11. - Friends and foes changed sides today on the proposed
nuclear power plant in the state during the Assembly debate on the power
budget.

Mr Tapan Hore of the RSP strongly opposed the proposal while Mr Saugata Roy
and Mr Biplab Roy Chowdhury of the Congress supported the power minister,
Mr Mrinal Banerjee.

Mr Hore said the peak demand in the state was 7,500 MW but would go up to
10,000 MW by 2012. But this demand could be met from thermal, hydel and
non-conventional energy sources like solar power and windmills.

He rejected the argument that nuclear power was cheap, and pointed out that
it would cost a lot to clear the spent fuel passed into the sea.

The RSP leader cited a UN report on the Chernobyl disaster to underline the
dangers inherent in nuclear power plants. He said he was not just voicing
his personal opposition to the project, but his party's as well.

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#3.

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INDIA PAKISTAN ARMS RACE
&
MILITARISATION WATCH #18
(21 July 2000)
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[information & news for peace activists on Arms sales to the region,
defence budget figures, acquisitions & updgrades of weapons systems,
development and deployment of new weapons, implications of militarisation;
the developments on the Nuclearisation front and the doings of the
'intelligence' agencies. Bringing this information to wide public knowledge
is our goal here. No to secretive & exclusive control of this information
by technocrats, planners who plot national security hidden from public
scrutiny.
Please help us in the information gathering work for wide public
dissemination in South Asia.
Send Information via e-mail for IPARMW series to: aiindex@m... for
inclusion in the Emailings]

=========================================

The Friday Times
21 July 2000

INDIA'S MISSILE ACQUISITIONS COULD INITIATE ARMS RACE IN SOUTH ASIA

Gaurav Kampani and Peter Saracino

Despite India's denials, there is an arms race under way in South Asia.
India's recent commissioning of a Kilo class submarine armed with Russian
Klub missiles will be cause for alarm among all countries which operate
ships in the Indian Ocean region. This new missile, designated 3M54E1 (NATO
name SS-NX-27), will give India an offensive strike capability with a range
three times that of its best current anti-shipping missile.

Of equal concern is the extent to which countries are willing to violate
the spirit, if not the letter, of the Missile Technology Control Regime
(MTCR). Designed to restrict the flow of technologies for delivering
weapons of mass destruction, the MTCR - of which Russia is a member -
prohibits the sale of complete missiles capable of delivering a 500kg
payload to a range of at least 300km. The 3M54E1 is a state-of-the-art
Russian cruise missile that can deliver a 450kg high-explosive warhead at
ranges up to 300km.

Unfortunately, publicly available information is not accurate enough to
determine whether the sale of the 3M54E1 is an outright violation of the
MTCR or is just very close to a violation. However, the Indian navy is
negotiating for the purchase of three versions of the 3M54E1 to equip its
newest destroyers, submarines, and maritime-patrol aircraft. Indian
officials have also emphasized the transfer of production technology in
their negotiations with Russia. Even if the 3M54E1 does not currently
exceed MTCR limits, it will not take long for India's emerging aerospace
industry to learn how to extend the range and increase the payload.

Although most of its flight is subsonic, the 3M54E1 uses a solid-rocket
booster to accelerate to approximately Mach 2.5 then dashes the final 60km
to its target at 5m above the water. Combined with its advertised ability
to take evasive maneuvers, this makes the 3M54E1 extremely difficult for
even a sophisticated navy to shoot down, especially if it is fired in
salvoes. The safest way to defend against attack by such a weapon would be
to launch a pre-emptive strike against whatever ships, submarines, or
aircraft are believed to be armed with it.

>From a nonproliferation and arms control perspective, the sale of the
3M54E1 is alarming for several reasons. India is a nuclear possessor state.

Since the May 1998 nuclear tests, New Delhi has embarked on an ambitious
effort to create a visible nuclear deterrent. It has authorized the
weaponization of tested nuclear devices, deployment of air, land, and
sea-based nuclear delivery platforms, and the creation of a robust command,
control, communications, and intelligence infrastructure to manage that
capability.

In April 1999, India tested the 2,500km-range Agni ballistic missile.
Longer-range versions of the Agni are under development. According to
India's former Minister of State for Defense, Bachi Singh Rawat, the
5,000km-range Surya intercontinental ballistic missile is in an advanced
stage of development and likely to be tested soon. India's Defence Research
and Development Organisation (DRDO) is refining a sea-based version of the
short-range Prithvi ballistic missile. Efforts are also afoot to develop
the Sagarika, a 300km sea-launched cruise missile, and a nuclear-powered
submarine to launch it from - the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV).

Ten months ago, pundits on the advisory board of the National Security
Council in New Delhi released the draft of India's proposed nuclear
doctrine. The doctrine outlines a monumental program to create a triad
based second-strike nuclear force architecture, which New Delhi hopes will
propel India into the ranks of the first-tier nuclear weapon states.

So far, the Indian government has resisted international entreaties to halt
further weaponization. It has also rebuffed plans to accept a nuclear
restraint regime that would balance India's perceived security concerns
with global arms control and nonproliferation regimes and norms.

Russia's sale of the 3M54E1 cruise missile provides further incentive for
India's neighbors to escalate the emerging nuclear and conventional arms
races in South Asia. There are already rumors that Russia is helping India
to build the ATV. Recent reports published in Russian, Norwegian, and
Indian sources suggest that Russian engineers and scientists are helping
India to integrate the 190MW pressurized water reactor into the hull of the
nuclear submaine. By the same reckoning, sale of an advanced cruise missile
system and the accompanying production technology would most likely
accelerate the DRDO's efforts in developing the Sagarika cruise missile,
especially in areas of propulsion and guidance.

Russia's eagerness to sell advanced weapon systems and technologies in
violation or near-violation of existing regime rules and norms reveal the
gradual unraveling of the US-Russian post-Cold War consensus on nuclear and
missile proliferation and arms control. Russia's hunger for high-tech
military exports as a means to raise cash for funding development of the
next generation of weapon systems and delivery platforms is inexcusable.

India's ambitious strategic modernization program will stimulate regional
reactions. China and Pakistan are likely to begin clamoring to build or buy
systems to defend their naval forces against the 3M54E1 and its related
launch platforms. Other countries which operate naval forces in the region,
such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States can be expected to
augment their capabilities as well. This lock-step arms race has a familiar
tone and we may hear again phrases like "missile gap" and other exhausted
rhetoric from the Cold War.