[sacw] South Asia Arms Race & Militarisation News

[Harsh Kapoor]

INDIA PAK ARMS RACE & MILITARISATION WATCH NO.4
(7 December 1999)

[information & news for peace activists on Arms sales to the region,
defence budget figures, acquisitions & updgrades of weapons systems,
development and deployment of new weapons, implications of militarisation;
the developments on the Nuclearisation front and the doings of the
'intelligence' agencies. Bringing this information to wide public knowledge
is our goal here. No to secretive & exclusive control of this information
by technocrats, planners who plot national security hidden from public
scrutiny.
Please help us in the information gathering work for wide public
dissemination in South Asia.
Send Information via e-mail for IPARMW series to: aiindex@m... for
inclusion in the Emailings]

[There are no postings below from Peace activists ... its all the
establishment news which we need to figure & track.]
----------------------------
[1] Jane's Defence Weekly Briefing - Military Modernisation In Asia
[2] Indian Army Boss in Paris on a shopping spree
[3] Pakistan 's Nuclear Laboratories Discussed
[4] N-attack? Ducking for cover in India
----------------------------
[1.]
[Excerpts from]

BRIEFING - MILITARY MODERNISATION IN ASIA
ASIAN ARENA
Robert Karniol is JDW's Asia-Pacific editor

24 November 1999
Jane's Defence Weekly

Robert Karniol analyses the aims and structure of military modernisation
in Asia. Military modernisation in the Asia/Pacific region, for many of the
countries involved, initially focused on developing conventional warfare
capabilities. However, related trends today are more complex in nature.

The region comprises a vast area and the component nations differ widely
in their level of development, their politics and their geo- strategic
interests. Abritrarily, the region is divided into four sub-regions: south
Asia, southeast Asia, northeast Asia and Australasia (see box page 28).

Such geographical groupings are convenient for the purpose of identifying
common factors born from proximity-including ethnic, cultural and
historical links; trade and investment patterns; and territorial concerns.
They also delineate the broader area that may be most immediately affected
by instability at the national level. However, trends in military
modernisation transcend these boundaries.

This is evident in the two broad themes that characterised the development
of defence forces throughout much of the region for the past 20 years: a
shift in focus from internal to external security; and a new emphasis on
naval and air power. Conventional warfare capabilities were introduced, or
substantially expanded, as a result.

This process produced an arms build-up of unprecedented scale for the
region, fuelled by strong economic growth that was fostered by relative
stability. The build-up is now largely completed, allowing military
modernisation to proceed at a more measured pace. The economic climate has
also changed, at least for the foreseeable future.

Given the great variety among countries that comprise the Asia/Pacific
region, this is an exploration of major trends evident among those seeking
more advanced military capabilities.

Several nations, notably the smaller states within Australasia, maintain
no proper defence forces whatever. Others, such as Bhutan and Mongolia, are
limited in their military requirements.

A number of regional players are nevertheless introducing advanced defence
capabilities, of varying intensity, previously seen only among developed
countries. A few are moving further to challenge monopolies long enjoyed by
the world's great powers.

Trends in equipment and capabilities

Increased mobility and firepower dominate ground force requirements
throughout the Asia/Pacific region. An outgrowth of the turn to
conventional warfare doctrine, and partly driven by advances in technology,
such efforts often see new capabilities introduced.

Illustrating this point is Singapore's decision earlier this year to
obtain eight Boeing AH-64D Apache attack helicopters. Combat helicopters
are already operational in India, North and South Korea, Pakistan , Taiwan,
Thailand and Vietnam.

Force reductions, generally linked to restructuring, are also strongly
evident. In the case of Taiwan, the army is being trimmed and reorganised
in response to Taipei's 1991 shift to a purely defensive posture. In
Australia the main aim is greater flexibility, combined with a sharper
focus on combat operations, while restructuring in South Korea is tied to
far broader military reforms. Japan, New Zealand and Thailand are, among
other countries, similarly affected.

China's 1997 announcement of its intention to slash 500,000 personnel from
the three-million-strong People's Liberation Army (PLA) by next year
provides the most dramatic example. The reorganisation is derived from a
doctrinal change which moves Beijing from the traditional 'people's war'
system, that relied on massive troop strength, to one emphasising greater
professionalism linked with advanced technologies.

A noteworthy exception to this approach is found in Myanmar. There the
army has ballooned from its strength of some 180,000 in 1988 to an
estimated 450,000 today.

Among developed nations, the rapid deployment force (RDF) is viewed as an
instrument of power projection. Regionally, this is exemplified by the
Australian Army's 3rd Brigade, based in Townsville, and the US 31st Marine
Expeditionary Unit, based in Okinawa. However, several Asia/Pacific
countries are redefining the concept to better suit their own geo-strategic
environment.

[...]

The initial phase of modernisation saw several naval forces that
previously had hugged the coastline move to the limits of their respective
exclusive economic zones. In the process, navies gained an independent
role of increasing importance. More recently, several countries have been
developing three-dimensional maritime capabilities of growing
sophistication.

Eight countries in the region have operated submarines for some time:
Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, North Korea, Pakistan and
Taiwan. These were joined in the 1990s by South Korea, Singapore and
Vietnam-with Malaysia and Thailand still awaiting their turn.

The upgrade of existing capabilities is shown by Beijing's push to develop
two new classes of nuclear-powered submarines, together with India's
likely launch of its first nuclear-powered attack submarine around 2006/7.
Pakistan recently obtained from France the first of three Khalid (Agosta
90B)-class diesel-electric patrol submarines and South Korea is planning to
acquire at least three second-generation diesel-electric boats.

Land-based maritime patrol aircraft are operated by 17 countries and 12
currently deploy shipborne helicopters (see box above right). India and
Thailand have aircraft carriers, although Bangkok still lacks an
operational capability, while China continues to mull over the introduction
of such a platform.

[...]

Although air power is well-established among some countries in the region,
several others have seen their air forces develop an independent role only
with the more recent introduction of advanced fighters. Nations in both
categories are filling gaps among their platform inventories to forge more
fully-rounded capabilities while introducing improved weapon systems.

Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft are indicative of this
progression. These are currently operated by Japan, Singapore and Taiwan.
China is awaiting delivery next year of a prototype model using the
Israeli Phalcon radar. Australia has ordered seven systems and India plans
to lease Rusian AEW&C aircraft. Thailand and South Korea are consider ing
their introduction. Similarly, six countries have so far introduced mid-air
refuelling tankers- Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and
Singapore-with Japan potentially to follow.

[...]
The enhancement of weapon systems is illustrated by the spread of
beyond-visual-range missiles with China, India, Malaysia and Vietnam
operating the Russian-made AA-10 'Alamo' air-to-air missile. South Korea
deploys the US-made AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile
(AMRAAM), which has also been ordered by Australia and Taiwan the Mica from
France together with its own Sky Sword-2. Japan is introducing the AAM-4
air-to-air missile, developed by Mitsubishi, and both Singapore and
Thailand have asked Washington to supply the AIM-120.

The region is next likely to see the introduction of cruise missiles from
early next decade. China and India are each reported to be pursuing at
least two programmes. North Korea and Taiwan may have cruise missiles in
development as well, and Japan is also a potential producer.

Defence forces throughout the region are far more complex to manage,
support and operate as a result of such developments. This has inspired
efforts to boost professionalism and has seen widespread activity to
upgrade command, control, communications and intelligence (C{3}I) systems.
Computers are also of growing significance.

One outcome of the rapid advances under way in computer technology, and
the dependencies these are creating within strategic sectors, is a flurry
of interest in information warfare capabilities. China and Taiwan are
particularly involved in this contest. Another is the recent 'revolution
in military affairs' caused by the application of information technology.
Regionally, it seems that only Australia, Japan and Taiwan have so far
been able to fully embrace this change.

Trends in strategic capabilities

Three main sectors represent developments at the strategic level: nuclear
weapons, ballistic missiles and surveillance satellites. Tying these
together is a growing concern in some quarters over effective defence
against missile attack.

The nuclear issue was highlighted some 18 months ago when India and
Pakistan conducted a series of underground tests, in the process shifting
from undeclared nuclear-power status to membership of the nuclear weapons
club. This has obvious implications on stability in South Asia and is
regrettable in proliferation terms, but it has yet to spur the
international community to effectively revive the nuclear disarmament
debate.

India and Pakistan are unlikely to dismantle their nuclear weapon
programmes under current conditions and this must eventually force some
adjustment in the privileges enjoyed by the five established nuclear
powers. This process could be sparked by the upcoming nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty conference, due around May. This will be the first
such gathering since the treaty was extended indefinitely in 1995,
advantageously relieving the established nuclear powers of any firm
obligation on nuclear disarmament.

Elsewhere in the region, China has been upgrading its nuclear delivery
systems, while North Korea appears to be abiding by a 1994 commitment to
the US that froze its nuclear weapon programme. Chinese efforts centre on
developing multiple re-entry vehicles and multiple independently
targetable re-entry vehicles for a new generation of ballistic missiles.
South Korea and Taiwan, which both once had nuclear weapon programmes, are
not known to be pursuing these now.

Until recently, China was the only Asia/Pacific country fielding
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This is changing with India's
test launch of the Agni 2 in April; Pakistan 's test launch of the Ghauri
1 in April 1998 and the Ghauri 2 a year later; and North Korea's test
launch of the Taepo Dong 1 in August 1998. The US Central Intelligence
Agency, in its most recent National Intelligence Estimate, says that any
state so inclined should be able to deploy ICBMs by 2015.

A second tier of activity is represented by ballistic missiles of a more
limited range. These are currently held by China, India, North Korea,
Pakistan , South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. Among those that may
eventually join this group, Japan must first address the domestic
constraints that leave it unable to develop effective strike capabilities.

China and India have been operating their own observation satellites for
some time, and several other Asia/Pacific countries have selective access
to military-grade imagery provided by friendly states. Commercial
satellite imagery is another option, with Singapore and Thailand among
those operating ground stations, but this has so far been constrained by
tight limits on resolution.

Two trends indicate the growing importance of satellite imagery:
improvements in the quality of commercially-available imagery; and a
modest proliferation of satellites. For the foreseeable future, both are
more likely to have greater impact at the strategic and political level
than at the tactical one.

The quality of imagery should be enhanced with the launch this year and
next of the Ikonos1/2 and Quickbird1/2 commercial satellites. These are
operated by US companies providing multispectral and panchromatic imagery
at resolutions of 3m and 1m, respectively. Japan is planning to launch by
2003 two observation satellites equipped with optical sensors and two with
synthetic aperture radar sensors. South Korea aims to launch its first
military satellite by 2005, while Singapore and Taiwan are among those
with similar ambitions.

Two countries, Japan and Taiwan, have shown intentions to develop defence
systems against ballistic missile attack. Two others, China and North
Korea, could pursue the same objective through a different approach.

In August Japan concluded an agreement to participate with the USA in a
joint theatre missile defence (TMD) research programme. Tokyo may be some
10 years from overcoming the domestic political hurdles obstructing any
deployment, but it has begun laying the groundwork through acquisitions
and upgrades that can be applied to such a system. Taiwan has indicated
that its five-year military modernisation plan, beginning next year, will
have a similar objective at its core.

China is concerned at the strategic advantages it would lose if TMD
becomes established, and at the prohibitive cost it faces in trying to
develop such a system. Although boosting its air defences with systems
provided by Russia, which have limited application against missiles, its
main strategy is likely to focus on heightened deterrence. North Korea may
also view deterrence as its best defence against any pre-emptive or
punitive missile strike.

The economic crisis that hit East Asia two years ago, which continues to
restrain growth, fostered instability in several countries, with
implications for regional security. However, it is unlikely to have a
major impact on military modernisation. There has been some adjustment in
procurement plans, but this is affecting the pace of implementation more
than the substance.

It is equally noteworthy to consider that elements of the military
modernisation process find limited application in several of the region's
smaller nations.

Bangladesh is upgrading its air force, and Brunei its air and maritime
capabilities. A dozen South Pacific island-states (see box below left)
have over the past decade gained greater control of their extensive
maritime territories through Australia's provision of Pacific Forum-type
large patrol craft.

Military modernisation in the Asia/Pacific region has been paralleled by a
profusion of economic links and military-to-military contacts. Dialogue
has been enhanced between governments and new channels of communication
installed. The next major challenge lies in establishing security
mechanisms that can effectively ensure the stability required for the
region to prosper.
[...]
Photograph: Strategic missile capability continues to grow in the
region: Pakistan 's Ghauri 2.
Pakistan Army; EPA/PA News;

Photograph: Strategic missile capability continues to grow in the
region: India's Agni 2. EPA/PA
News;
[...]
Copyright Jane's Information Group Limited 1999.
------------------
#2.
MALIK IN PARIS ON A SHOPPING SPREE
By Rahul Bedi
New Delhi: Gen. Ved Prakash Malik, one of India's most widely travelled
Army Chiefs, left for Paris at the weekend where he is expected to explore
the possibility of acquiring varied military hardware to enhance the
country's defence preparedness after the Kargil war. During his seven-day
Paris visit, which follows his recent two-week visit to the US, Gen. Malik
is also expected to hold talks with senior French defence officials as
part of the ongoing bilateral strategic dialogue which began with Paris
after last year's nuclear tests. Gen. Malik's other recent overseas visits
include a 10-day trip to Poland and at least one other east European
capital in May several days after the intrusion by the Pakistani Army and
mercenaries across the Line of Control in Kargil had been detected and at
least one exploratory Indian Army patrol declared missing. The patrol was
ambushed by the Pakistanis and all its members killed. France, meanwhile,
is the only Western nuclear weapon state which respected India's right to
conduct nuclear tests for security considerations, opposed economic
sanctions and expressed a willingness to help overcome the difficulties
created by them. But above all, France considers India a massive market for
its military equipment which is highly favoured by the Army, despite Paris
supplying a range of defence hardware to Pakistan like battlefield
surveillance radar, Mirage fighters and submarines armed with the latest
missiles. The Army, however, is insisting on buying around 200 hand-held
thermal imaging systems from Thomson-CSF, which sources said was
comparatively more expensive, as the price quoted did not include the
manufacturer's recommended list of spares. Competing offers were cheaper,
but sources said for one consideration or another the Army was insisting
on acquiring French TI systems. Official sources said for inexplicable
reasons, senior Army officers were also determined to buy the RASIT-E
battlefield surveillance radar for the artillery from Thomson-CSF despite
having acquired BSR's from Israel recently in a deal that included
transfer of technology for local manufacture by Bharat Electricals limited
in Hyderabad. The contract with Israel's ELTA Electronics Industries signed
earlier this year was for 56 artillery BSR's and 200 man-portable radar
worth Rs 80 crores. India is also negotiating with France for Mirage 2000D
fighter aircraft and systems for the 32,000-tonne air defence ship which
is being built at Cochin Shipyard Limited. DCN of France had provided an
earlier version of the ADS design in the late 1980s which was reportedly
been improved upon. India's decision to formalise the strategic dialogue
with France was cemented during Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's
visit to Paris last year. Earlier, French President Jacques Chirac said
during his visit to India that France would not only strengthen the
Committee of Cooperation for Military Affairs but also hold naval
manoeuvres with India in the Arabian Sea more advanced than the ones held
six years ago. These, however, were postponed as the Kargil conflict
intervened. The two countries also agreed to explore joint ventures in
defence production which will, no doubt, be carried further during Gen.
Malik's visit.
-------------------
#3.
Pakistan 's Nuclear Laboratories Discussed
Article by Dr A Q Khan:
"Dr A Q Khan Research Laboratories, Kahuta--Service with Dedication"

11/24/1999
World News Connection
Copyright (C) 1999; Source: World Reporter (TM)

Twenty-three years ago Engineering Research Laboratories (ERL) was
established on 31 July 1976 with the exclusive task of indigenous
development of Uranium Enrichment Plant. Within the next five years the
target was achieved. What appears like a miracle in retrospect was actually
made possible only by a dedicated team of scientists who worked tirelessly
with single-minded devotion to give Pakistan a nuclear capability. On 1
May, 1981, ERL was renamed as Dr A Q Khan Research Laboratories (KRL). It
was enrichment of uranium in KRL that ultimately led to the successful
detonation of Pakistan 's first nuclear device on 28 May 1998.

KRL's defence related projects The nuclear program of Pakistan has proved
to be highly beneficial for becoming self-reliant in our national defence.
While spelling out other achievements of the KRL towards achieving tal for
the country, our contribution in building highly sophisticated weapon
systems deserves a special mention. The various sophisticated technologies
perfected during the course of time has enabled us to undertake many
defence projects of national importance. It has not only made us
self-reliant in various sophisticated weapon systems, but has also enabled
us to save huge amounts of valuable foreign exchange. Intense research is
being carried out in this realm with the aim of fully equipped our armed
forces with the latest conventional weapons. Some of the weapon systems
produced by us in addition to our main task are being listed here. Further
details, however, are vailable at KRL's Website: www.krl.com.pk.

Missiles based on liquid fuel technology a) KRL has successfully
developed/tested Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles based on liquid fuel
technology and its associated sub systems.

KRL is now confident of developing all types of rockets/missiles based on
liquid fuel technology to meet the military/commercial requirements of the
country.

b) Surface-to-Air-Aircraft Guided Missiles-Anza Mk1, and Anza Mk-11.
c) 'Baktar Shikan' Anti-Tank Guided Missile Weapon System.
d) Anti-personnel Mine Sweeping Line Charges.
e) Anti-Tank Mine Clearing Line Charge-Plofadder-195AT.
f) Laser Range Finder.

(7) Laser Threat Sensor (8) Laser Actuated Target (9) Laser Aiming Device
(10) Add-On Reactive Armour Kit (11) Anti-Tank Ammunition-Armour Piercing
Fin-Stabilised Discording Sabot (APFSDS) (12) Remote Control Mine Exploder
(RCME) (13) Digital Gonimetre (14) Power Conditioners for Weapons Systems
for TOW ATGM Weapon System, 'Baktar Shikan' Weapon System, 'ANZA' Training
Missile System.
(15) Switched Mode Power Supplies for LAADS Radar, Skyguard Radar, Air
Defence Automation System.

Tow Missile Modules KRL's Industry-based projects-the dream of
self-reliance comes true KRL, today, is fully contributing its share to
build a self-reliant Pakistan by producing the most sophisticated and
latest electronic equipment, which is in great demand by the local
industry. We, at KRL, have embarked upon the bulk production of
'Kenvertors'-the textile Invertors-and UPS (Un-interrupted Power Supplies)
which, when employed by the local industry, have set fine records of
accuracy and cost-efficiency. Apart from the numerous facilities offered by
these equipment, their indigenous production promises a better and
efficient after-sales service. The various products are: 1) Thick Film
Hybrid Circuits Technology 2) Kenvertors-Textile Invertors 3)
Un-Interrupted Power Supplies (UPS) 4) Stationary Blade Type Rotary
Compressors For Air Compressors For Air Conditioners (Window Type) Higher
education, research and development-KRL takes the lead: One of the areas,
that has always attracted my attention and has been on top of my agenda, is
to develop a solid scientific and technological base in the country. There
is no gainsaying the fact that nowadays technology holds the key to a
flourishing economy, formidable defence and expanding social sector, as
development in the present world is another name of a country's solid
science and technology infrastructure. In this respect, we have not only
been regularly holding international and national conferences, symposia and
workshops but have also helped other institutions and organizations in
their pursuits in this direction.

Besides, regular help in shape of donations of equipment is provided to
educational institutions for setting up state-of-the-art laboratories.

The various conferences being held by KRL are:
1) ISAM (International Symposia on Advanced Materials): KRL's biannul
feature, held in 1989, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1997 and 1999
2) ISMV (International Symposia on Mechanical Vibrations): KRL's biannual
feature, held for the first time in 1998.
3) All Pakistan annual software competitions and exhibitions, held each
year since 1990.
4) National Workshop on Magnets and Magnetic Materials, 1994.
5) National Seminar on Power Electronics & Opto-Electronics (June 18, 1996).
6) International Conference on Phase Transformations, (September 1-3,1996).
7) National Conference on Vibrations in Rotating Machinery (September 7-9
1996).
8) A 5-day Course on Vacuum Technology, (October 5-9-1997).
9) 'Vacuum '98'-5-Day Course and Exhibition (November 10-14, 1998).
10) One-Day Seminar on Vibrations (September 15, 1999).
11) 5-Day Workshop on Software Engineering for Professionals: Held twice,
May 2-6, 1999 and October 10-14,1999.

Conclusion In any large and difficult undertaking, there are rough times
to go through and of course success may not come till one is dead -but
these things (difficulties, embargo, failures etc) do not matter if one is
in earnest. My colleagues and I were in earnest and by the grace of
Almighty God and through our sustained and untiring efforts we were lucky
to see success in our life-time. Today, our untiring efforts at Kahuta have
not only yielded mastery in the nuclear field and the uranium enrichment
technology, but in fact it has provided a tremendous technical, ruboff,
which is being utilized in a thousand other ways. In terms of conventional
warfare, Kahuta is contributing much to national defence while it is also
playing a significant role in national reconstruction by providing a
thriving technological base.
------------------
#4.
The Times of India
25 November 1999

N-attack? Ducking for cover is better than being a sitting duck
by Arun Kumar Das

As part of its overall disaster-management plans, the Delhi government
has prepared a blueprint on how to go about things in the event of a
nuclear attack on the Capital. The proposal embodies large-scale expansion
and upgradation of the civil defence department, imparting advanced
training to its personnel, construction of underground shelters (known as
safe zones), and setting up of control rooms in different parts of the city.

The blueprint, which has been prepared keeping in mind the measures
adopted by certain Western countries, also covers areas adjoining Delhi
which form a part of the National Capital Region. Elaborating on the
government's plans, Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit says, ``The idea
was conceived during the Kargil crisis. We have discussed the matter
threadbare. But the whole process is a long-drawn affair which involves
coordination with various Central agencies.''

In a related development, the Delhi government has also issued
instructions to the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) that the
underground tunnel being constructed in the city be damage-proof against
any possible attack. ``Though the technique used for constructing bunkers
is different from the one used for the metro tunnel, the idea is to use the
tunnel in case of an emergency,'' says a senior government official.

Apart from precautionary steps to be taken vis-a-vis a nuclear emergency,
the proposal envisages being fully prepared to survive chemical warfare.
According to the Delhi government's plan, which has been submitted to the
Centre for clearance, a core committee will be formed shortly to coordinate
with Central agencies and give final shape to the plan.

``As per basic requirements,'' says the official, ``experts will be hired
to train civil defence personnel as strengthening the civil defence
infrastructure is top priority. Acquiring sophisticated first-aid kit,
survey metres, detailed area maps and decontamination kit are other
priorities for the project,'' adds the official.

While civil defence personnel will be provided specially-made dresses,
there will be select shelters in the city which will function as medical
outposts in case any area is affected by radiation. The training imparted
to civil defence personnel will also include evacuation techniques,
administering first-aid and other related matters. Mock exercises and dry
runs are also being planned for this purpose.

Since public awareness is of utmost importance in the event of an attack,
an elaborate programme involving school teachers, area representatives and
civil defence personnel is being finalised. The project also includes
broadcasting `alert' messages and will ensure that panic does not creep in
through coordination with various agencies. According to a rough estimate,
the whole project will involve expenditure of around Rs 300 crore and will
be implemented in phases.