[sacw] sacw dispatch (17 Oct.99)

[Harsh Kapoor]

South Asia Citizens Web Dispatch
17 October 1999
___________________________________
#1. Highlights of speech of Pak CEO
#2. Why Did The BJP Succeed?
___________________________________
#1.
[Latest News - from the DAWN website 17 October 1999]

Below are highlights of the speech of the Chief Executive of Pakistan, Gen.
Pervez Musharraf, which are being transcribed live. We apologize in advance
for any errors or omissions. The complete text of the speech will [be
available on the DWAN site] as soon as it becomes available.
___

Pakistan today stands at the crossroads of its destiny. 52 years ago we
started with a beacon of hope, which is no more. No light is visible
anywhere. Our economy has crumbled, our credibility lost, and people who
were brothers are at each others throat. Is this the democracy our Quaid
had envisioned? But let us not be despondent. We are not a poor nation.
We are rich in agricultural and mineral resources. And above all a dynamic
and industrious people. We have just to join hands and grasp our destiny.
Allah helps those who help themselves. It is unbelievable that those at
the helm of affairs had conspired to destroy the only institution left in
the country. I salute all my officers and men for acting courageously, and
the people of Pakistan for their support. I will not allow the people to
go back to the era of a sham democracy. The choice before us was of saving
the body, the nation, at the cost of loosing a limb, the constitution. Or
vice versa. I choose to sacrifice the limb. The constitution is in
abeyance. This is not martial Law. The armed forces have no intention of
staying in power for an extended period. Our aims are as follows:
Revive economy, restore law and order, depoliticize state institutions,
ensure swift and across the board accountability. The President has
agreed to stay on in his position. A council of advisors, a think tank of
experts will join the national Security Council to provide advice and
input. A governor, helped by a small cabinet of professionals, will
administer the provinces. Our economy must be revived. It is in deep
trouble. We must restore trust in our economy and revitalize it. Rebuilding
of confidence through economic security to attract investors. Increase
saving. We will turn around state enterprises, increase agricultural
output. On Accountability will be swift and transparent. My advise to the
corrupt is to bring the national wealth back to Pakistan. Period is 4
weeks. Devolution of power to the people is essential as envisioned in the
Constitution. I am a firm believer in the freedom of the press. I am
considering the establishment of private radio and TV channels. Islam
teaches peace and not violence. I have great respect for the ulema, and
expect them to ome forth and present Islam in its true light, and reject
elements that spread hatred and violence. I want to insure our minorities
that we will safeguard their rights. I also want to tell the world that
our foreign policy remains unchanged and that we will stand by our
international commitments. We want peace in Afghanistan. We want our
friendship with China and the US to prosper further. Last year we were
compelled to test nuclear devices to restore nuclear parity. In
post-nuclear subcontinent, both India and Pakistan have to act responsibly.
I congratulate Mr. Vajpayee on his election as PM. I reciprocate his wishes
for peace and stability in South Asia. Together Pakistan and India can
work to resolve their problems, specially on the problem of Jammu and
Kashmir. India must respect the rights of the Kashmiri people. We want the
situation to remain calm. I want to announce a unilateral de-escalation on
our borders and a withdrawal of forces. To conclude, we have hit rock
bottom but we will rise and rise we will. I want to give you a personal
commitment. I want my tax records to be public, and subject to public
scrutiny.
________________
#2.

WHY DID THE BJP SUCCEED?

By K. N. PANIKKAR

A fractured mandate again, even if the National Democratic Alliance led by
the Bharatiya Janata Party has mustered enough support to form a government.
No single party has got a majority, either in terms of votes or seats. While
the BJP has just about maintained its earlier strength, the Congress has
further declined. The Communist Party (Marxist) has barely held on to its
seat share of the last election. Only the regional parties have managed to
improve their position, whatever may be the reasons for the same. The Telugu
Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, Dravida Munnetra Kazhakam in Tamilnadu,
Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttarpradesh and Biju Janata Dal
in Orissa, who jointly account for more than hundred seats, are the
prominent among them. The opinion voiced by some during the election
analysis that this election reflects a polarisation of political forces and
India is moving towards a bipolar system is far from the truth. In fact, the
two main parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress together
account only for about three hundred seats. The rest, almost two hundred and
fifty seats are in the kitty of smaller and regional parties.

The BJP=EDs success in this election is mainly due to its coalition strategy=
=2E
After the election of 1996, it was generally held that the era of a single
party government is over and the future lies with coalitions based on a
reconfiguration of political forces. The only party, which appears to have
taken this lesson seriously, is the BJP. Given its communal ideological
commitment and its active participation in the demolition of the Babri
Masjid the BJP was not able to gather enough support to remain in power in
1996. As L.K.Advani recently confessed, the BJP then realised that it can
not come to power without incorporating the regional parties into its
support base. It therefore cobbled up an alliance of eighteen parties in
1998 and twenty-four in 99-- although they had nothing in common
ideologically and programmatically-- by putting on the backburner its
controversial Hindutva agenda. This strategy has yielded rich dividends in
this election, as the NDA has managed to gain a comfortable majority, thanks
to the performance of the allies. More than one-third of the seats of the
NDA is their contribution, most of them in single digit. Rather than the
charisma of Atal Behare Vajpayee it is the Vaikos, Ramadosses, Chautalas and
Abdullas who made the success of the BJP possible. The critics of the BJP,
particularly of the Left and secular, might decry this opportunistic
strategy, but for the BJP the proof of the pudding is in eating it. The BJP
leadership has shown enough resilience to compromise the present to ensure
the future.

In contrast the Congress refused to come to terms with the present; instead
it chose to cling to the past. It suffered from an exaggerated sense of
self-importance and a misplaced trust in its nationalist legacy. It failed
to realise that except in a few states the party machinery has corroded, no
leadership worth the name existed and that its social base has considerably
shrunk. These can hardly be recreated overnight as evidenced by the election
results. The sympathetic crowds, which thronged the meetings of Sonia
Gandhi, were not translated into votes primarily because the party did not
have the machinery to do so. Some of its good candidates, like Manmohan Sing
in Delhi, lost to relatively insignificant nominees of the BJP.

Unlike the BJP the Congress wrongly read the political present. It actually
lost the election when it failed to provide an alternative after the fall of
the BJP government. This failure was mainly due to a miscalculation of its
potential. The only way the Congress could have made a come back was through
a coalition government for which several political formations had pledged
support. Without seriously pursuing it and declining support to a Left led
government the Congress insisted on a single party government, failing which
it opted for an election. The unexpected and impressive success in the
assembly elections in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh was perhaps the
main factor, which influenced this rather intransigent and politically
unwise decision. The Congress thus lost an opportunity to bring the secular
forces together. As a consequence the Congress faced the election without
any allies, except the highly tainted parties like AIDMK and RJD which
instead of advancing its electoral prospects proved to be counter
productive. Given the quick changes of government due to the failure of
coalitions the Congress hoped to romp home on the plank of stability and
single party rule. But a party riven with dissension and desertion could not
enthuse such a confidence in the electorate. What actually sealed the fate
of the Congress was the lack of allies in a fractured polity in which small
parties wielded decisive power in several areas. Many of them are individual
based parties without any clear-cut ideological moorings and therefore could
be part of any political formation. While the BJP went out of its way to
mop them up the Congress did not try to bring even the like minded parties
to its fold.

The success of the BJP to a large measure is rooted in the failure of the
third front to posit a viable alternative to both the Congress and the BJP
at the national level. Much before the elections the third front had already
disintegrated. The united front experiment of 1996 was short-lived. Its
demise was largely pre-determined by the =EBhistoric blunder=ED of the Left =
not
accepting the primeministership and was hastened by the infighting among the
constituents of the front. The BJP=EDs grand design of coalition took shape
from the ashes of the united front. But for that it would not have
progressed much further than the 1996 position. Ironically the third front
committed to defeat the Hindu communalism has actually facilitated its
success.

Yet the third front still commands a political space as evident from the
outcome of this election. The former partners of the third front, now
dispersed in different camps, have done exceptionally well. Most of them
like TDP, DMK, SP and RJD have gained success on their own strength and not
riding piggyback either on the BJP or the Congress. If anything, the latter
have gained from the influence of the former. For instance, but for the
support of TDP and DMK the BJP would have drawn almost a blank in Andhra and
Tamilnadu. The election therefore affords an important lesson: the
mobilisation of Left-secular- democratic forces is still possible, provided
there is a will to do so.

The BJP=EDs rise to power is clearly not on its own social and political
support. Neither its organisational strength nor the popularity of Atal
Behare Vajpayee would have ensured its success. What enabled the success of
the BJP is mainly the lack of political vision of social democrats. When the
Hindutva agenda unfolds itself in the coming years they are likely to rue
their unprincipled collaboration. For, this time around, the hidden agenda
of the BJP is not likely to remain very much hidden.

(KN Panikkar is a noted historian of modern India and a prominent commentato=
r
on issues relating to communalism in south Asia.)

___________________________________________________
South Asia Citizens Web Dispatch is an informal, independent &
non-profit citizens wire service run by South Asia Citizens Web
(http://www.mnet.fr/aiindex) since 1996.