[sacw] On Post-Kargil Election scenario in India

[Harsh Kapoor]

30 July 1999
FYI
Harsh Kapoor
(South Asia Citizens Web)
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Far Eastern Economic Review
August 5, 1999 / Vol.162, No.31
Politics & Policy

INDIA
Beyond The War:
A tide of nationalism will help the ruling coalition in September elections

By Sadanand Dhume in New Delhi

August 5, 1999This summer, as in years past, Delhi's middle classes have
thronged to Nirula's, a fast-food chain famous for its 21 flavours of
ice-cream. This year, though, the enduring attractions of "rum raisin"and
"butterscotch crunch" will benefit not just Nirula's bottom line but a
cause that is India'sflavour of the month: Two rupees (46 U.S. cents) on
every ice-cream sold in July will go to a fundfor Indian soldiers.
Cones for the war effort are only one of the ways in which the latest
conflict with Pakistan overKashmir has touched the lives of ordinary
Indians. Tens of thousands have honoured the war dead at funerals.
Housewives have gone door to door collecting old newspapers to help the war
effort.Retirees have donated their pensions. Highly paid cricketers have
visited the front lines. And filmstars have drawn thousands to "Kargil
benefits"--named for the area in Indian-controlled Kashmir where the
heaviest fighting took place as Indian troops pushed back the Pakistani
army andPakistan-backed militants from strategic heights they had occupied
since early this summer.
The war may be over, but the images of grieving widows and grim-faced
officers saluting the deadhas helped create an upsurge of nationalism that
will affect Indian politics and policy in the monthsahead. The legacy of
Kargil will likely include larger defence outlays and continued tensions
withPakistan--and a possible return to power of the coalition led by the
Bharatiya Janata Party inelections due in early September. "You see a
rather heightened nationalism," says Ashis Nandy, apolitical psychologist
at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, a New
Delhi-basedthink-tank. "It will leave behind sediments."
This "heightened nationalism" has been spurred by television, which for the
first time beamedpictures of war to living rooms and community centres
across India. In 1971, the last time Indiafought Pakistan, only 45,000
Indians owned TV sets and all of these were in Delhi, according to B.S.
Chandrasekhar, director of research for India's state-owned television
network. Since then, TV ownership has rocketed to 70 million sets spread
all over the country. Chandrasekhar estimates that400 million of India's
980 million people would have seen images of Kargil. Ironically, some ofthe
most stirring images were captured by private stations, such as Rupert
Murdoch's Star Newschannel which sent aggressive young reporters armed with
satellite phones to the front lines.
In the short term, the political impact of Kargil will likely favour the
ruling BJP-led coalition. Theopposition Congress party has made feeble
attempts to highlight the intelligence lapse that allowedPakistani
intruders to capture a swathe of territory in Indian Kashmir. But few
people are listening.So far, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's
government has successfully packaged the conflict asa military and
diplomatic victory. "The Kargil conflict is likely to bring urban
middle-class voters back to the BJP," says Yogendra Yadav, a political
scientist at the Centre for the Study ofDeveloping Societies. While that
may not be enough to give the BJP a majority of its own, it mayhelp carry
the outgoing alliance back to power, says Yadav.
A good monsoon and a buoyant economy also appear likely to aid the BJP.
After waiting on thesidelines in June, foreign institutional investors have
returned to the Bombay Stock Exchange.News that Pakistan-backed
infiltrators were withdrawing from Indian-administered Kashmir pushedthe
exchange's Sensitive Index to a record high of 4,810 on July 15. The
stockmarket has gained37.5% since April.
Some analysts believe that foreign investors are betting on the BJP-led
government returning topower in a stable coalition. According to Rukhshad
Shroff, a Bombay-based strategist at JardineFleming, foreign investors'
interest in India is mainly driven by an economic rebound, expectations of
improved corporate earnings and an increased appetite for Asian equity.
Despite the euphoria at the stock exchange, the Kargil conflict has not
been without economic costsfor India. Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has
hinted at a one-time tax to cover the extra expenditure on the war;
analysts estimate it to be nearly $1.2 billion. Deepa Kamath, aBombay-based
economist at SG Securities Asia, says that its estimates of India's fiscal
deficit haverisen from 5.3% to 5.6%. The government's target of 4% is
looking increasingly implausible.
Adding to the government's fiscal woes is a likely upturn in defence
spending. India is determined not to be caught napping a second time, but
the costs of patrolling a 140-kilometre stretch ofmountainous terrain
through winter will be high. According to defence analysts, India
alreadyspends $4 million a day to maintain positions on the Siachen
glacier, the world's highestbattlefield, which also is claimed by Pakistan.
Though India is likely to use a combination ofsatellite images and patrols
to help hold down costs in Kargil, these will still run into manymillions
of dollars.
"A detached longer-term view shows that India has not gained," says Brahma
Chellaney, a professor of security studies at the Centre for Policy
Research, a New Delhi-based think-tank. "It has beensaddled with new costs,
and these costs will be borne by India, and not by the
internationalcommunity."
On the diplomatic front, the most obvious victim of Kargil has been the
dialogue with Pakistan, initiated when Vajpayee took a bus trip to Lahore
in February. Under pressure from the UnitedStates, India has offered to
resume talks. But after the entire country has spent two monthswatching
slain Indian soldiers come home wrapped in the flag, public sentiment is
againstcompromise.
India has already signalled its hardened position by linking fresh talks
with a demand that Pakistan cut off support to Muslim militants seeking to
end Indian rule in Kashmir. At the same time,Indian diplomats will try to
maintain the responsible image the government's restrained approach tothe
intrusion has garnered. They will also try to focus the international
community's attention onPakistan's links with fundamentalist Islamic groups
such as Afghanistan's Taliban.
When the BJP-led government lost its majority in parliament, its spokesmen
pointed to improved ties with Pakistan as a major achievement of its
tenure. Now, with the BJP and its allies hoping toride a wave of
nationalism, victory over Pakistan, rather than cooperation with Pakistan,
willdominate the election campaign. The Kargil effect, already making an
impact on ice-cream sales,will now likely be felt at the ballot box.