[sacw] sacw dispatch #2 (13 Oct.99)

[Harsh Kapoor]

South Asia Citizens Web Dispatch #2
13 October 1999
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Contains:
#1. Dissolution, Suspension or Martial Law?
#2. Analysis: Pakistan, India Poised on the Edge
#3. BJP's half-a-victory
#4. Indian army's 1.5 billion dollars modernisation
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#1.
DAWN
13 October 1999

(Special Report by The Star)

Dissolution, Suspension or Martial Law?
Crucial Corps Commanders meeting today
Supreme Court approached
PM, CM, Fed Ministers on ECL

The corps headquarters in the provincial capitals have taken control of the
administration while there seems to be a constitutional vacuum after the
dismissal of the Nawaz government. The authorities are exploring avenues to
install a set-up to avoid martial law if possible. The army may approach
the Supreme Court of Pakistan to justify the action under "law of
necessity" as has been done on previous such occasions.

Well-informed sources said limited options were available to the army. They
are:

(1) Suspend the constitution and obtain opinion from the Supreme Court
to appoint an interim government for limited period to hold fresh
elections.

(2) Restore Nawaz Sharif with an understanding that he should advise
the President to dissolve the National Assembly and hold fresh elections
under the new set-up. The President cannot dissolve the Assembly after the
8th Amendment was abolished.

(3) President should also quit and Chairman Senate take over and
appoint an interim set-up, and

(4) Martial Law, which the army wants to avoid.

The STAR learnt leading opposition leaders have given their consent
for an interim government but the main opposition leader Ms Benazir Bhutto
is against the long-term interim government.

Top military bureaucrats, technocrats and legal experts are huddled
together to bring the country out of its most extra-ordinary situation in
Islamabad today.

"This is neither the 1958, 1969, 1977 martial laws or the 1990, 1993 or
1996 removal of the government by the then Presidents under the 8th
amendment. It is a situation where neither martial law has been imposed nor
a constitutional provision used for the removal of the government," said a
legal expert.

Senior jurists like former Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Syed Sajjad
Ali Shah, Sharifuddin Pirzada, Khalid Anwer, Justice (retd) Fakhruddin G.
Ibrahim and others are in Islamabad and have been asked to give their legal
opinion in order to avoid martial law, as well as advise the military on an
interim setup.

Well-placed sources revealed the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee
and Chief of the Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf was expected to chair
an important meeting of corps commanders sometime today.

"A decision is expected today and the role of the President Rafiq Ahmed
Tarar is said to be most important if democracy is to be saved, otherwise
martial law looked inevitable," said a highly placed source in Islamabad.

The governors of Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan are in Islamabad and have
been asked to stay there till a decision is reached. Except for the Punjab
Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the army decided not to detain the chief
executives of the other provinces. However, they have been told not to
issue any executive order.

According to reports dismissed PM Nawaz Sharif is still under house arrest
in PM House while his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, and other federal ministers
are under house arrest in different places in Islamabad.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) has not issued any statement
as most of their leaders are either in hiding or trying to get in touch
with the quarters that are calling the shots. It will be interesting to see
how many of them will side with their deposed leader.

Sources said the GHQ meeting beside other things will decide the fate of
former chief of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), General Ziauddin, who
became Chief of the Army Staff for two hours and is presently under
detention. "His fate may not be very different from that of former Corps
Commander Lt General Tariq Parvez who was to retire and hand over charge,
today." These circles did not rule out the court martial of General
Ziauddin, if a conspiracy to remove General Parvez Musharraf is
established.

Sources said General Ziauddin and Lt General Tariq Parvez, Punjab Chief
Minister Shahbaz Sharif are said to be behind the move to replace General
Parvez Musharaf. "The intentions of the Nawaz government became clear after
the retirement of Lt General Tariq Parvez by the COAS Gen. Musharraf. There
were reports that Ziauddin was to be the next casualty after the return of
the COAS from Colombo and Nawaz overreacted," source in the federal capital
said.

General Ziauddin on Tuesday, attended a high level meeting presided over
by former Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and attended
by all four chief executives, the governors of NWFP and Balochistan beside
other high ranking officials. "I did not get any impression of things to
follow either from the expression of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif
or ISI chief," said a participant of the meeting.

Well-placed sources in Islamabad said because of the GHQ decision not to
impose martial law in the country the speech of Chairman Joint Chiefs of
Staff Committee and Chief of the Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf was
delayed for almost six hours.

Reliable sources report that a new Exit Control List (ECL) has been
prepared which has the names of the almost all the high officials of the
Nawaz government. The list has now been circulated to all international
airports and border posts in the country.

There are indicators coming out of Islamabad that the army plans to hold
the reins of power for some time, informed sources in Rawalpindi told The
STAR.

It is learnt that Commander 10 Corps was consulting with Chief Justice of
Pakistan this afternoon the legal justification of new-set up under the
direct umbrella whether or not it is called martial law.

Well-placed quarters told The STAR that army leadership does not want a
civil set-up immediately. If it was allowed at this stage, since it may
become difficult for the army. As PML-N will also have to be allowed
political activities which would create disorder. Thus, at present, it
appears as if the army will exercise the option to rule.

This scribe tried to get the comments of the various top ranking army
officials but they declined to give an immediate response. However, a
top-ranking source in Islamabad said, on the condition of anonymity, that
in the shortest possible time the army will achieve national
reconciliation, national reconstruction and revive the national economy and
achieve political stability. But when asked if this means martial law, he
refused to comment and said " see the message, between the line I have
given you. At present, we are going through the legal provisions which will
help the army brass to take a decision, that was the reason the COAS was
not specific in his early morning speech.' 'It will take some time to make
things clear." said another source.

"It appears that there is reluctance on the part of the army leadership to
impose a martial law but they are definitely not in favor of restarting the
political process which may ultimately goes in favor of Nawaz Sharif.
Assessing the situation, the things it is safe to say that the army will
have a crucial role, but the real picture will emerge shortly:"

Reliable sources said that lists are being prepared to change the entire
set-up of the country, which includes all the major financial institutions.
It is learnt that top technocrats, whose integrity is behind doubt, will be
inducted into the new setup.

It was also learnt that the army's top brass is taking decisions in
coordination with their immediate subordinates. There are also indications
that a few top ranking officials to be sacked soon.

[A Special Report Courtesy The STAR.]
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#2.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/southasia/southasia.htm

Washington Post
Wednesday, October 13, 1999; Page A21

Analysis: Pakistan, India Poised on the Edge
By Pamela Constable
Washington Post Foreign Service

NEW DELHI, Oct. 12 The military coup in Pakistan is a serious setback for
both secular democracy and for stability in the volatile subcontinent,
where both Pakistan and its longtime rival India have tested nuclear
weapons and missiles in the past 18 months.

Although prompted largely by a personal power struggle between Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf, the head of the armed
forces, the coup could have far-reaching implications. It could increase
Pakistani aggression in the disputed Kashmir region, where Pakistan and
India fought a 10-week border war this year. It could leave Pakistan's
nuclear arsenal in military hands, unfettered by even the pretense of
civilian political control. And it could potentially strengthen Islamic
fundamentalism in Pakistan, where religious sentiment has been rising
within the military.

Indian officials tonight said the coup is a "matter of grave concern," and
Indian troops were reportedly placed on alert along the 450-mile border,
known as the Line of Control, that divides Kashmir. The new government of
Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee is to be sworn in on Wednesday
and will hold an emergency meeting of top security officials immediately
afterward.

India, which is largely Hindu, and Pakistan, which is an Islamic state,
have fought three full-scale wars in the past five decades. This summer
they engaged in a smaller conflict in mountainous Kashmir, which is divided
between the two nations.

Vajpayee and Sharif held talks last winter in the Pakistani city of Lahore
and pledged to settle their differences peacefully. But the dialogue was
undermined by the outbreak of fighting along the border, and today's
military takeover seems likely to deal a further blow to the prospect of
resuming negotiations.

In recent weeks, the Pakistani army has been widely reported to be upset
with Sharif's decision, at U.S. urging, to pull Pakistan-based fighters
back from the border. The army has long viewed Indian Kashmir as a rightful
part of Pakistan, and guerrilla groups backed by the Pakistani military
have recently stepped up a terrorist campaign there.

The coup, the fourth in Pakistan's turbulent half-century of independence,
could also badly damage Pakistan's standing in the West. Pakistan is
impoverished, in debt and heavily dependent on the United States for
economic survival. Three weeks ago, as tensions were mounting between
Sharif and Musharraf, officials in Washington warned that the Clinton
administration would "strongly oppose any attempt to change the government
through extra-constitutional means."

The United States has been pressing both Pakistan and India to sign a
comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, but both Sharif and Indian officials
have resisted. Now, with the treaty in limbo in the Senate, the Pakistani
coup could be a setback for the prospect of nuclear disarmament in the
region.

"This is a dreadful development," said Praful Bidwai, India's leading
anti-nuclear activist. "It should worry everyone that the situation is so
volatile. All assumptions about stability, about reasonable forms of
military balance, about nuclear deterrence working, are liable to break
down."

Some Indian analysts struck a calmer tone. Lt. Gen. V.R. Raghaven, a
retired army official, said that Indian governments have "learned to deal
with military governments in Pakistan, both in peace and in wartime." But
he described the situation as "extremely serious" and said it has "brought
great instability to the region."

In recent years, the Pakistani military has been increasingly influenced
by Islamic thinking, a legacy of the late dictator Gen. Mohammed Zia
ul-Haq, who led a military coup in 1977 and subjected the country to harsh
Islamic law until his death in a plane crash in 1988. Some military
officials have been working closely with conservative Muslim groups who
want to impose Islamic law on the nation.

Musharraf is known as a professional officer, however, and he was
handpicked by Sharif only last year after the prime minister fired his
predecessor. Even some secular parties that oppose Sharif had been reported
to be seeking Musharraf's approval for a move against the prime minister.

Tonight some Pakistani experts speculated that Musharraf might appoint an
interim national government, perhaps along the lines of a formula that
opposition parties, angry with Sharif's failure to revive Pakistan's ailing
economy, have been demanding for months. Two and a half years after
Sharif's election on a pledge to restore the country's economic well-being,
foreign investment is at a standstill, inflation is rampant, the foreign
debt stands at $32 billion and unemployment is at an all-time high.

In an interview last week, Brig. Rashid Qureshi, the spokesman for
Pakistan's armed forces, declared that the military had no desire to oust
the government, only to help rescue the country from economic collapse. He
also said the army was committed to remaining a secular institution, and
that it would not tolerate excessive Islamic zeal within the ranks.

"There are no power-hungry generals," Qureshi said. He acknowledged that
there was "disgruntlement and dissatisfaction" in the army over the
pullback from Kargil, the remote Kashmir border region that was the setting
for the recent conflict, but he added that "the only way Pakistan can
survive and progress is if all elements of power are one in thought and
action. The army is a stabilizing influence, and there is a collective
feeling that we must help."

According to some analysts, Sharif may have abetted his own downfall by
systematically cutting off all avenues of institutional dissent since he
took office in early 1997. In recent months, he has emasculated the
presidency and the Supreme Court, muffled dissenters in parliament,
arrested opposition activists who tried to hold demonstrations and hounded
the press.

"By eliminating all constitutional avenues to his leaving power, Nawaz has
brought us back to 1977, when Gen. Zia seized power," said Tariq Naheen, a
former government minister and lawyer in Lahore.
=A9 1999 The Washington Post Company

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#3.
[8 Oct 1999]

BJP's half-a-victory in Indian elections

By Praful Bidwai in New Delhi

Elections in India have for the fifth time thrown up a complex,
regionally fragmented, and ambiguous verdict with no clear mandate
for any political party or ideological current to rule. Although the
Hindu-chauvinist right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party-led National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) has won 295 of the 543 seats in the Lower
House of Parliament, this does not necessarily mean that its
government will be stable or last its five-year term.

The election results reveal many trends. On the whole, they represent
a setback for the Centre-Left and for progressive causes, and confirm
a rightward shift in India's political evolution. They are also a
rejection of parties and leaders in a number of states, and a warning
that rulers should not take India's discriminating electorate for
granted.

Indian voters have thrown out more than two-fifths of the MPs who
represented them for barely a year after the last election in 1998.
Their negative votes of rejection have been more important than any
positive affirmation of support. Among the other major trends are the
declining importance of charisma-based politics and identity-related
issues, and the rising importance of governance and accountability.

The results also reinforce long-term tendencies of self-assertion of
the Dalits (untouchables) and low castes in the social hierarchy, the
rising importance of secular-political choices for India's Muslims,
besides the growing regionalisation of politics.

The BJP has emerged as the single largest party, but it has failed,
despite many advantages, to exceed its old tally of 182 seats. It has
set back its principal rival, Sonia Gandhi's Indian National
Congress,
in a big way, to less than 120 seats.

Yet, ironically, the Congress's share of the vote has actually risen--
to almost 29 per cent, or four percentage points higher than the
BJP's. This is only one paradox of India's first-past-the-post system
of electoral representation.

The paradox is explained by the Congress's failure to form alliances
and maximise its gains, and the BJP's tactical shrewdness in forming
a number of flexible coalitions to strengthen its vote score.

In the BJP's strengths and tactical success also lie some of its
weaknesses--and the limitations of its mandate. The party has had to
drop many distinctive issues and demands which set it apart from its
allies. It has thus "diluted" its politics--for the time being.

The BJP has lost in some of its traditional strongholds, most
significantly Uttar Pradesh, the world's sixth biggest state with a
population exceeding 120 million. There, its seats tally fell by one-
half as voters turned towards the Congress and other secular parties.

And yet, the BJP made up its losses by piggybacking on its allies in
the east and the south. It also reaped disproportionate benefits from
divisions in its opponents' ranks. For instance, in the
industrialised western state of Maharashtra, it (with self-avowedly
pro-fascist ally, Shiv Sena) gained entirely because of a recent
split in the Congress.

The BJP's "own" positive vote is significant only in a handful of
regions e.g. Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and capital Delhi. There too, it
is the weakness of the Congress, rather than its own expanding base,
that accounts for its success.

The Congress has suffered particularly gravely from the burden of
incumbency and poor governance at the state level, especially in
Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, and Delhi. It has however benefited
from its opponents' incumbency burden to a lesser extent, mainly in
Karnataka and Punjab.

The Congress's vote has expanded, with the party reviving under Sonia
Gandhi to recover some of the base it lost 10 years ago due to its
passive policy towards, and collusion with, the BJP's agitation for
pulling down a 16th century mosque at Ayodhya. This straightforward
anti-Muslim agenda challenged the secular foundations of Indian
politics.

Gandhi emphasised the Congress's commitment to secularism, and
campaigned vigorously against majoritarianism and religious
chauvinism. This has clearly not been enough to rebuild its eroded
base.

The Congress continues to be seen as a party which initiated India's
neo-liberal shift in 1991. These economic policies are perceived to
be elitist and anti-poor. This is probably one of the main reasons
(besides local ones) why Manmohan Singh, the father of neo-liberal
reform, lost heavily in Delhi despite being an extremely important
Congress leader with a clean image.

The Congress is painfully learning that a dynamic leadership image--
in Sonia Gandhi and her daughter Priyanka--is no substitute for
policies and programmes that appeal to the poor, or for political
coalition-building.

If "Sonia's charisma" did not work, nor did Vajpayee's mythical mass-
appeal. He was left adressing small street-level meetings in Lucknow.

The BJP mounted an energetic, highly offensive, xenophobic, male-
chauvinist campaign, on Gandhi's Italian origins. It did its very
best to defeat her in Bellary in the South, as well as in UP.

Sonia Gandhi convincingly won both seats. This was an affirmation of
her acceptance as a leader with potential mass appeal by the
electorate--despite her origins. But the electorate did not lavish
approval upon her as a political strategist who could transform the
Congress into a pro-poor party representing
multiple interest groups under a broad pluralist-secular umbrella.

The BJP has again succeeded in converting the Congress's weaknesses
into its strengths. But its gains may be limited and transient.

The BJP's freedom of manoeuvre inside the NDA is restricted.
Its allies are proportionately stronger than earlier. Given the NDA's
relatively thin Parliamentary majority, each of the BJP's half-a-
dozen important partners can destabilise the alliance or hold it to
ransom.

There is no ideological bond between them. They also have specific
regional agendas, some mutually conflicting. This makes for
instability. Internal strains led to the coalition's collapse five
months ago.

Dissension and factionalism in the BJP is liable to
grow. The election campaign revealed serious rifts in the party in
UP,
where its own chief minister campaigned against its candidates in
many constituencies. The party is riven with caste
rivalries and personal feuds.

The BJP has consciously--and deviously--adopted a "moderate" or soft
line, momentarily keeping in abeyance its hard-line sectarian agenda.
This may please its allies, but not its more extreme, bigoted,
partners in the larger family of the Hindu Right, on whom it is
dependent. The BJP will be under pressure from them to condone their
campaigning against the religious minorities and for "Hinduising"
textbooks. This too makes for instability.

However, the BJP's embarrassment can turn into its opponents'
decisive advantage if they play their cards well.

Besides the Congress, there are three significant forces within the
space to the NDA's left: the Left parties, the Dalit-led Bahujan
Samaj Party and the middle-caste-dominated Samajwadi Party. All these
have a strongly regionalised presence. The last two have improved
their tally of seats. The Left is in gradual decline, although in
West Bengal it has held its own.

The chances of formation of a Third Front,
independent of both BJP and Congress, are relatively low. Much
depends on the Congress and on the Left's ability to expand the space
available to the Third Force.

At the end of the day, the BJP is unlikely ever to grow into a party
with a truly broad popular appeal, especially among the poor. Its
future does not lie in its own hands. It depends on its opponents'
weaknesses and mistakes.--end--
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#4.
=46rom: Source: India Network News Digest - Oct. 13, 1999

Indian army plans modernisation to prevent more Kargils

WASHINGTON: India will modernise its army at a cost of 1.5 billion dollars
to prevent "more Kargils", a U S defence weekly has said, reports PTI.

Indian army has prepared "an urgent modernisation plan to re-equip itself
to face the military challenges in Kargil and other parts of the Kashmir
valley posed by the military forces of Pakistan," and it is expected to be
approved soon, `Defense News' quoting a senior military official of the
country said.

The senior army official said the plan includes immediate procurement of
ammunition and basic surveillance and communication equipment,
bullet-proof jackets, ground sensors, surveillance radars, night vision
systems, thermal imagers, electronic warfare systems for jamming and
listening to communications, unmanned aerial vehicles and a geostationary
satellite for defence applications.

The ministry of defence, said the weekly, has signed a contract already
for the purchase of 37.5 million dollars worth of laser-guided 155mm
Krasanopol-m rounds and laser finders for the artillery.

A ministry official said that the agreement for the purchase from
Konstruktorskoe Byeuro Priborostroeniya (KBH) is subject to successful
tests of the smart projectiles at higher altitudes.
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South Asia Citizens Web Dispatch is an informal, independent &
non-profit citizens wire service run by South Asia Citizens Web
(http://www.mnet.fr/aiindex) since1996.